Today's non-farm payroll data (to be released on August 1) can be interpreted in several aspects regarding its impact on the digital currency market (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum).
1. Data Expectations and Market Reactions
Previous Value vs. Prediction: The previous value of July non-farm payroll data was 147,000, with the market predicting 110,000; the unemployment rate's previous value was 4.1%, predicted at 4.2%. If actual data falls short of expectations (e.g., new jobs below 110,000), it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets like BTC and ETH; conversely, if the data is strong, it may delay rate cuts, leading to a market correction.
Immediate Market Fluctuations: After the data is released, if it shows weakness in the job market, BTC may bounce back to around $119,400, while ETH may test the $3,800 resistance; if the data exceeds expectations, it may further probe support levels (BTC $114,600, ETH $3,600).
2. Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Expectations
Non-farm data is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy. If job growth slows, it may enhance the market's bets on a rate cut in September, driving funds into cryptocurrencies; conversely, if the data is strong, the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance, suppressing BTC and ETH upward momentum.
Recently, there has been a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy (July FOMC vote 9-2 to maintain rates), and non-farm data may influence subsequent policy direction, thereby affecting market sentiment.
3. Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
BTC Key Levels: Currently oscillating in the $115,000-$118,000 range; if the data is favorable and breaks above $118,000, it may open up upward space; if it falls below the $114,600 support, it may test the $110,000-$113,000 demand zone.
ETH Key Levels: $3,600 is an important psychological support; if it falls below, it may pull back to $3,425-$3,337; if it holds above $3,800, it may alleviate short-term selling pressure.
Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently shows 'Greed' (65), but if data triggers severe fluctuations, it may quickly turn to 'Panic', intensifying short-term sell-offs.
4. Macro Risk Cumulative Impact
U.S. Tariff Policy: Trump's new tariffs (effective August 1) have triggered market risk aversion; if the non-farm data is weak, it may amplify fluctuations in risk assets.
Institutional Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETF recently saw a net outflow of $115 million, while Ethereum ETF continues to experience inflows, indicating market divergence. Non-farm data may affect institutional allocation decisions.
5. Operational Strategy Suggestions
Short-term Trading: Avoid high leverage before and after data release, and set OCO (one cancels the other) orders to capture fluctuations.
Medium to Long-term Positioning: If weak data leads to a pullback, consider gradually accumulating BTC, ETH, and mainstream altcoins (like SOL, XRP); if the data is strong, wait for market stabilization before entering.
Summary
Tonight's non-farm data could become a catalyst for BTC and ETH's short-term trends, but comprehensive judgment should be made considering technical aspects and macro policies (like Federal Reserve statements, tariff impacts). Traders should pay attention to price reactions following data release and on-chain capital flows (like stablecoin minting/burning, staking changes).