In July's crypto market, Ethereum (ETH) outperformed Bitcoin (7.9%) and traditional assets with a 48% increase, becoming one of the brightest performers, and at one point approaching the critical resistance level of $4000. As August begins, can this second-largest cryptocurrency in the world maintain its strength and break through the key threshold? From the perspectives of market sentiment, fund movements, and historical patterns, there are multiple supporting factors; however, short-term volatility risks still need to be heeded.

1. Core driving force behind July's strong performance

  1. Rising risk appetite and ETF support
    In July, global market 'risk appetite' sentiment surged, with Ethereum being the biggest beneficiary. The newly launched Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S. attracted approximately $5.4 billion in net inflows that month, with massive funds flooding in directly intensifying buying pressure and rapidly pushing up prices. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETF saw significant cash outflows at the start of August, highlighting a significant preference for funds toward Ethereum.

  2. Strong on-chain demand and institutional confidence
    On-chain data shows that the number of daily active addresses on the Ethereum network soared to 841,100, reaching a 12-month high, reflecting a continuous increase in ecosystem activity and user participation. Meanwhile, institutional accumulation actions are frequent: SharpLink Gaming recently transferred $108 million USDC to Galaxy Digital for increasing its ETH holdings, accumulating nearly 15,000 additional units in a single day, with total holdings reaching 464,000 units (valued at approximately $1.62 billion). This confidence stems from Ethereum's position as the most stable smart contract platform—zero network downtime records and a decade-long ecological accumulation have reinforced its long-term value consensus.

2. Analysis of the possibility of breaking $4000 in August

  1. Historical patterns resonate with bull market characteristics
    Historically, Ethereum's average monthly return in August is 4.89%, and the characteristics of the bull market in 2025 are highly similar to the 'Crypto Summer' of 2017 (when ETH rose by 92% in August). Current market sentiment and funding structure lean toward bullishness; if this trend continues, there is historical probability support for breaking the $4000 resistance level.

  2. Potential push from technical and funding aspects
    Technical analysis indicates that $4000 is a key mid-term resistance level for Ethereum. Once broken with significant volume, it could open up new upward space. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour level is in the oversold range, indicating short-term rebound momentum. Combined with a bullish macro outlook, if funds refocus on Ethereum, the conditions for breaking the resistance level will gradually mature.

3. Short-term risks to be cautious of

Despite the long-term positive trend, the weak start to August has released signals of volatility: Bitcoin ETF fund outflows may trigger market sentiment transmission, while selling pressure at the $4000 resistance level may also suppress upward momentum. In addition, global macro policies (such as Federal Reserve interest rate movements) and changes in the regulatory environment may still pose periodic shocks to risk assets.


In summary, the strong foundation accumulated by Ethereum in July, on-chain demand, and institutional confidence provide multiple supports for breaking $4000 in August. There are also resonant opportunities from historical patterns and technical aspects. However, short-term attention needs to be paid to the sustainability of funds and the strength of breaking resistance levels. If it can effectively hold above $4000, a new round of upward movement may begin; conversely, it may enter a phase of consolidation.