A new month, a fresh start!
To all the early risers, does holding long positions make your scalp feel a bit tingly?
During our break, several negative news hit us, directly pushing BTC down to our previously expected position of $115,000:
The core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. for June unexpectedly rebounded, which is not good news for future interest rate cuts.
Trump's side has adjusted the tariff policy, raising the tariff rate on Canada from 25% to 35%, with the new higher tariffs officially implemented on August 1, 2025.
Iran has stated that the U.S. must compensate for the losses Iran suffered during the Iran-Israel conflict, or else the resumption of nuclear talks is off the table.
There is also a lamentable piece of news, well-known trader AguilaTrades in the contract sector faced liquidation, losing $40 million in capital and profits, with only $86,000 left in the wallet.
This is the unpredictable market, this is the challenging trading, 365 days a year, you never know when a negative news will suddenly pop up.
However, it is worth noting that whales are still continuing to increase their positions, and even exchanges are doing the same. Coinbase updated its Bitcoin holding data early this morning, increasing its holdings by 2,509 BTC in the second quarter.
From on-chain data, the movements are not significant, and this drop is more affected by macro factors.
For long-term trends, we still hold an optimistic attitude and suggest everyone increase their BTC allocation ratio to over 60%, and try to minimize touching altcoins to enhance risk resistance. Apart from BTC, currencies like SOL and BNB can be held patiently, and you can gradually bottom fish during declines.
