I have always believed in a saying: "The market is like looking at flowers in the fog. When the direction is unclear, don't mess around. Only make a move when you see the direction correctly."#ETH This sentence is a reflection of ETH today!
The ETH market today, August 1, 2025, is like a cat stuck in the crack of a door, unable to move up or down.
Let's first look at the technicals: The ETH/USDT perpetual contract is hovering at $3,712, having risen 0.42% in the past hour. This appears to be a slight recovery, but the increase is like a mosquito bite, barely noticeable. Here's the key point: The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a narrow range of 3,650-3,900, and the MACD lines are stuck together near the zero axis, like a couple, with the bar as red as a dead battery indicator.
What does this mean? The market is squatting, and neither the bulls nor the bears are willing to give in. There are large orders to suppress the market near 3900 above, and there is a defense line built by veteran investors at 3650 below.
Now, it's time to start considering the latest news. Just after 10 a.m. this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted in an interview that a 25 basis point interest rate cut is possible this year, but warned of the risk of a rebound in inflation. Following this news, US stock futures rose slightly by 0.5%, Bitcoin stabilized at $116,000, and ETH also saw some gains.
From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut is an aphrodisiac for the cryptocurrency world. Once confirmed, ETH may soar by 20% overnight, just like the time the Federal Reserve loosened its grip in January 2024.
On the other hand, if the US CPI data exceeds expectations tonight and hawkish rhetoric resurfaces, ETH will be in trouble. If you don’t believe it, recall the interest rate hike cycle in June 2023, when ETH plummeted from 4,000 to 2,400, and small coins returned to zero.
My personal opinion? ETH is now a "gambler's paradise." Short-term traders need to be swift and agile, while medium- and long-term traders should wait for bargain hunting opportunities.
I have a case in hand: When ETH was fluctuating around 3800 at the end of last year, the Bollinger Bands also closed in the same way. Later, the DeFi project Uniswap launched a new protocol, and ETH directly broke through 4000, leading to the entire altcoin season.
Similar positive news is just around the corner today, with the Ethereum development team announcing the launch of the Deneb upgrade two weeks ahead of schedule. This upgrade optimizes L2 transaction fees and opens the door for gaming and Web3 applications. If this positive news materializes, ETH could replicate its previous performance and challenge the 3900 resistance level.
Remember, if ETH moves, the cryptocurrency world will follow suit. Breaking through 3750 will drag down smaller players like SOL and MATIC, and even altcoins will take off. Breaking through 3650? That's an avalanche signal, and even BTC won't be able to withstand it, and smaller coins will all fall off the cliff.
Conclusion: Tonight's CPI data is the trigger. Keep an eye on the 3650 and 3900 levels. Whichever way the wind blows, go for it! Prepare your U or contracts and catch the big fish with me, Xinbi!
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