ETH's life and death situation tonight! 3900 or 3775? Powell just turned hawkish, and PCE data is coming for another hit!
Technical nuclear-level analysis
Key points fully exposed
Ceiling pressure: 3942 USD (100% Fibonacci level, clearly marked in the chart)
Long and short life and death line: 3835 USD (Bollinger middle track, currently falling towards this point)
Hell support: 3775 USD (validated multiple times in July, breaking will trigger a cascade)
Indicator covert battle
MACD death cross at high position (green bars continuously shrinking)
Bollinger Bands closing to the extreme (volatility hitting a monthly low)
Trading volume shrinking (large funds waiting for PCE data)
News bombshell
If below expectations → ETH rushes to 3900 → challenges 3942 ultimate pressure
If above expectations → bloodbath at 3775 support → look down at 3735 (secondary support in the chart)
Initial jobless claims:
Unemployment skyrocketing → positive for interest rate cuts → ETH takes off
Strong employment → bearish → prepare for a crash
Three major scenarios
Scenario one (bullish):
Breaking 3835 middle track → testing 3900 → 3942 has 3000 ETH sell orders capping
Scenario two (bearish):
Breaking 3775 → triggering 280 million USD long stop-loss at 3600
Scenario three (oscillation):
Data neutral → playing 'swing' between 3775-3900 → waiting for non-farm payroll showdown
Get rich quick operation
Spot trading party: reduce position at 3900, buy the dip at 3775
Contract party: chase long after breaking 3835 / chase short after breaking 3775
Buddhist party: closely watching the moment when 20:30 data is released
I monitored that the market maker buried a 120 million USD liquidation order at 3900!
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