Recently, market data has been released intensively, but I am more concerned about the movements of the dollar index. In just a few days, it quickly rose from 97 to around 100, which is a typical killer for risk assets. Although this has not yet fully reflected in coin prices, danger is approaching.
Dollar fluctuations, risk assets need to be cautious.
The recent rebound of the dollar may indicate that the market and altcoins will face a phase of adjustment. If we consider a four-year cycle, the period from the end of September to the end of October is the most dangerous, and the market may experience a rapid decline, especially with the large number of open positions in the options market on September 26, which has been accumulating potential selling pressure.
So my current view is:
The big plan is to gradually reduce holdings by 10%-20% over the next two months;
Altcoins will also reduce some positions gradually, especially those that have risen significantly but have not been cashed out.
If the market really experiences a 30% deep correction as expected, it will be a great opportunity to reallocate.
Small tips: here, reducing positions is supported by both macro and technical aspects, so don't panic; there's still some time before I plan to reduce positions, and during this time, you can continue to watch the situation for waves.
On the technical side, I am mainly focusing on two moving averages:
50-week moving average.
One-year moving average.
As long as these two lines are not broken, I tend to think this wave is a cyclical adjustment. However, once broken, we must seriously consider whether we have truly entered a bear market phase.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to accumulate negatives.
Yesterday's interest rate meeting had no surprises: no interest rate cuts, but Powell's signals were very clear—
No certainty on interest rate cuts in September.
Reject preset interest rate cut paths.
Even emphasized that '30%-40% of inflation is due to tariffs.'
This is a continuous blow to market confidence, with the probability of no interest rate cuts in September now close to 60%, and October is also not optimistic.
Note that there will be new data released tonight.
Currently, the entire market feels quite dull, but #Ethereum is somewhat different.
Recently, the number of large whale addresses has suddenly increased.
Data shows that the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH surged in half a month.
In the market of harmony, the proportion of open positions in ETH is approaching 40%, the highest since April 2023.
In other words, Ethereum is becoming the new focus of speculative funds.
Currently, many companies are starting to include ETH in their reserve assets, which also guides market sentiment. Interestingly, in terms of spot ETF fund inflows, ETH has recently surpassed BTC multiple times. This represents a tilt of main funds towards Ethereum.
The current spot price of ETH is 3800, with an average holding cost of only 2126, indicating that most people are not losing money. The MVRV still has room to rise, and the market has not yet reached the most greedy phase. Overall, ETH has the momentum to continue rising, but it is also approaching a phase of risk. If it can truly break above 4100, it may directly refresh the new high of this round.
To summarize my upcoming rhythm:
Before the end of August, I will choose to reduce BTC and some altcoins, then lock them up.
Observe the strength of ETH's breakthrough; if it breaks weakly, consider making a phased adjustment.
If there is a 30% level deep correction, then a new round can be considered.
Technical aspect: 50MA and annual average line; if broken, focus on risk control.
Opportunities in the market still exist, but the rhythm has changed; continuing to go all-in will only lead to the fate of 'standing guard' at high positions. Being a bit cautious might allow you to survive another round of the bull market.
