Tonight, let's continue to observe the overall trend of BTC and ETH. Also, today a fan asked me: How do you know it’s a rebound, not a reversal? After reading this article, you’ll understand!
Last night, US stocks rebounded strongly, basically regaining all the losses from last Friday. While the overall financial market stabilizes, it has also driven both Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise.
BTC once surged nearly 3,800 points from around 112,000 USD, and it is about to test the critical threshold of 116,000; ETH has also returned to 3700. Those who panicked and cut their positions a few days ago are likely feeling regret now. (Chasing highs and cutting lows is a major taboo.)
I have been reminding in my articles these past few days that when the market is fluctuating, it requires more calmness. In a bull market, it is easiest to lose big money, not due to a lack of opportunity, but because 'greed + fear' leads people to chase highs and cut lows, resulting in being harvested between high sells and low buys. Over the past two years, how many people's capital has been halved by 90%, while BTC has already broken 120,000 and ETH has soared to 3900.
BTC: 116K is the first level of concern, 118K is the previous high pressure.
Although Bitcoin has risen in this wave, don’t rush to celebrate the completion of a V-shaped reversal. From a structural perspective, the current vicinity of 116K is the bottom where positions are trapped, which is a key support level. The area around 118K above is the midpoint of the trapped positions. Only by breaking through that curve can the market truly enter a new phase.
For the lower defensive support, I am still particularly focused on the position of 114K. If a V-shaped rebound can form here and start to converge the structure, that would be a true signal for the next bullish phase to begin.
Once again, I remind you that the current daily bullish trend for BTC is still in place. As long as that main trend line is not effectively broken, we cannot easily conclude that the market has reversed. If one day it really breaks, don’t panic and cut, just wait for confirmation first. The combination of killing on the left side and chasing on the right side is the path that retail investors are most likely to lose money.
ETH: The golden pit has appeared as expected, 4100 is the key resistance.
In a recent article, I mentioned a golden pit position for ETH—around 3353 USD. If it breaks below and then quickly recovers with strong volume, it could be a counter-kill opportunity. The fact is, it rose nearly 184 USD in three days, close to a 5% increase, validating the strength of the structure.
Many people thought that seeing the M top breaking would mean a drop to 3100, but ETH directly executed a 'fake drop, real absorption,' burying the shorts, and even the W bottom structure began to brew. Especially for the ETH/BTC exchange rate, if it strengthens to the position of 0.03307, it can confirm the establishment of the W bottom, with an additional upside potential of over 12%.
Currently, 3820 is the main support level ahead. Once it breaks through effectively, ETH has a chance to challenge 4000 or even 4100, the previous highs. Note that this type of market movement does not rule out the possibility of directly shaking off onlookers and making them get in—no pullbacks, no waiting for others. This is a typical V-shaped reversal rhythm.
I personally tend to remain bullish on ETH, just don’t chase the highs. The previous level around 3355 still serves as important support. If the price oscillates repeatedly above this level and breaks through the short-term trend line, the upward momentum may become even stronger.
Summary: A potential V reversal is in progress, but not everyone can profit.
Now we are in the 'potential V-shaped reversal' stage, not an 'already completed' V reversal. If you don’t understand the structure or the key points, the best strategy is actually—don’t act, just observe.
Many people are still losing money in a bull market, and it ultimately comes down to too frequent and emotional trading. When the market really picks up, there are plenty of opportunities to make money, but you must have a plan, discipline, and patience.
I hope this review can help you. If you like it, feel free to like and share, if not, don’t criticize! Hahaha
