This morning, the dual macro events of the Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision + Powell's speech may be the catalyst for severe volatility in the crypto market.
Key Risk Point Analysis (July 31, 2025):
Potential Impact
02:00, the Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, no rate cut or hawkish language, USD strengthens → Bitcoin is under pressure (historical data shows that during rate hike cycles, BTC average decline is 15%-30%).
02:30, Powell's press conference, mentioning inflation rebound or delayed rate cuts may trigger **programmatic selling** (large holders layout short positions in advance).
Abnormal on-chain data:
1. Surge in net inflow to exchanges: In the past 24 hours, net inflow of BTC to Binance/OKX exceeds **12,000 coins** (Glassnode data, usually indicates selling pressure).
2. Whale address movements: 3 cold wallets holding over 5000 BTC transferred to exchanges (WhaleAlert monitoring).
3. Open interest in futures reaches an all-time high (CME Bitcoin futures open interest reaches $5.8B), long-short ratio 1:3, bears in control.
Emergency Response Strategy:
- Spot holders: If BTC falls below $56,200 (key support level) after 2 AM, it triggers stop-loss or hedging (shorting perpetual contracts for hedging).
- Contract traders: **Reduce leverage** (suggested ≤3x) before the Federal Reserve decision to avoid liquidation due to price spikes.
- Observation Indicator: Within 1 hour after the decision is announced, if the Coinbase Premium Index (CBPI) turns negative, it confirms capital outflow from the US.
In summary:
"This is not retail panic, it's Wall Street harvesting liquidity with the Federal Reserve's help."
(The scenario where BTC drops 23% in 7 days after the May 2022 interest rate meeting may repeat)
If you need real-time monitoring tools or specific asset analysis, please pay more attention to me.
#白宫数字资产报告 #中美贸易关系 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议 #美联储利率决议
Continue to monitor A2Z ASR MDT FTT
