Explosive interpretation of news
Just now, Trump officially signed an executive order imposing a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods (in addition to the existing 10%, making a total tax rate of 50%). It will take effect in 7 days (on August 6)! The exemption list is limited to core industries such as planes and energy, but beef, coffee, minerals, etc. are all targeted. The Brazilian real has already plummeted by 3%.
Three major nuclear impacts on the crypto space
1. Risk aversion sentiment is at an all-time high; could BTC be the biggest winner?
Historical experience shows that during trade war escalations, funds tend to flow into Bitcoin to hedge risks (refer to the 30% rise of BTC during the US-China trade war in 2018). But this time is different! Brazil is a core member of the BRICS countries; if it triggers a chain sell-off in emerging markets, BTC may rise first and then crash (the tariff news on July 23 had caused BTC to plummet by 20% in one day).
2. The collapse of the real; are Brazilians going crazy buying cryptocurrency?
The Brazilian real has depreciated 15% against the dollar this year; locals may accelerate converting savings into BTC or stablecoins (similar to the 300% surge in crypto trading volume during the collapse of the Turkish lira in 2022). But be careful! If Brazil's capital controls escalate, withdrawals from exchanges may be restricted!
3. Commodities are in chaos; DeFi collateral is in danger!
Brazil is a major exporter of coffee, sugar, and iron ore; the tariff war will impact commodity prices. Collateral assets in protocols like MakerDAO may face liquidation risks, especially in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector!
Personal Summary of Caiyue
Short-term: Before August 6, the market may speculate on the 'risk aversion narrative', but beware that good news may turn bad after the shoe drops.
Long-term: If Brazil retaliates (e.g., selling US treasury bonds), global liquidity will tighten and the cryptocurrency market will face a bloodbath!
Trump exempted planes but not coffee; Starbucks price hike warning
Remember! The market is not wrong; we are! I am @财月女神 , a top layout team, serving only ambitious individuals among the crazies! Finally, let me share a truth: In the crypto space, 90% of people are waiting for the 'perfect moment', while 10% are already 'creating opportunities.' In this play between Trump and Japan, do you choose to be an audience or an actor? #币圈 #比特币 #特朗普 #关税战 #宏观经济
