The A-share market continues to show a breakthrough trend today, even refreshing the high point of this round of trends, but it remains calm:
The rise in A-shares contrasts sharply with the overnight decline in US stocks, with the two markets showing different trends after the third round of China-US talks. Unlike the previous two talks, the results of the third round are expected to be revealed later. Overall, the market reaction has been very 'restrained', like an audience that has long guessed the plot.
What the market is most concerned about now is: the Federal Reserve, non-farm payrolls, and earnings reports from tech giants. Such a situation where major events converge in one week is rare.
First, the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision. While everyone knows that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, if it fails to provide clear guidance on the expected rate cut path in the future, the US dollar may continue to strengthen, and other markets will decline. In the post-meeting statement, will there be a shift in attitude towards 'tax increases possibly triggering inflation'? Has clearer room for rate cuts been left for the year? These are all focal points of concern. If the Federal Reserve remains 'deaf and mute' under this tariff deadline, the market may think that the Federal Reserve will only act when something really goes wrong, which would be bearish for the stock market. However, if the tone is slightly softer, it might even boost tech stocks for one last push.
Second, there is also the US non-farm payroll report on Friday, which is another major point of interest. The market expects an increase of 102,000 jobs, far lower than June's 147,000. This is one of the data points the Federal Reserve is currently most focused on: weak data → supports rate cuts → cheers from the stock market; strong data → delays rate cuts → becomes the trigger for 'good news turning into bad news'. Now the market hopes the economy 'isn't too bad' while also hoping it 'is bad enough to force the Federal Reserve to act'. In other words, it is best to be 'just right'.
Third, four tech giants (possibly Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) will be releasing their earnings reports intensively over the next few days, which will inevitably influence the entire US stock market's trend.
This week is not an ordinary week but rather a 'market faith testing week'. People are betting: tariffs will be delayed; Powell will hold firm; the seven giants will not stumble; non-farm payrolls will be just right; global central banks will remain inactive simultaneously; everything needs to be just right for the market not to fall.
