The latest market data indicates that Bitcoin is entering a phase of relative price stability, reflected in the decline of the implied volatility index (BVIV) to unprecedented levels since September 2023, where it recorded 40.84 points, surpassing the historical minimum of 45. This index, which has only decreased 21 times over more than two years, is often associated with periods of accumulation or the formation of price bottoms, typically followed by a strong upward price movement.
In this context, market behavior suggests that this phase of calm may not last long. The previous period, specifically in September 2023, witnessed an increase of nearly 50% after BVIV reached similar levels. Since late 2022, similar patterns have repeated before significant price surges, prompting analysts to anticipate a major movement ahead.
Despite Bitcoin achieving new historical levels in May 2025, the perceived volatility over 30 days continued to decline, falling within the lowest 10% of levels for the last decade. According to "Ecoinometrics" analyses, this may reflect market maturity, as Bitcoin has become more stable and attractive to institutional investors who prefer low-volatility assets.
However, this stability may indicate a delay in sharp price movements, especially if the low volatility pattern continues for longer than usual. Nevertheless, previous trends favor the likelihood of a price increase once the pressure begins to release.
On-chain data supports this optimistic trend. Short-term holders show clear confidence, despite recording paper losses of -8%, which is within ranges historically considered accumulation zones, not sell-off or panic zones. The MVRV ratio for short-term holders reinforces this conclusion, currently standing at 1.19, down from its peak of 1.33 in November 2024, reflecting a shift away from speculative trends towards long-term holding.
In terms of cost distribution, "Glassnode" data shows that the price range between $110,000 and $117,000 is witnessing organized buying and accumulation. Bitcoin is being purchased on dips, while early investors continue to hold their positions at higher levels. This "stair-step" cost distribution represents a bullish structural pattern, indicating that the market is moving based on logic rather than emotion.
Finally, the amount of active Bitcoin held by short-term holders rose from 4.36 million to 4.58 million BTC, adding 227,000 coins to active trading. This growth may reflect new liquidity entering the market or partial recycling of long-term holders' assets.
