In the past two days of the market, are you feeling a bit confused?
Is this round of correction a trap or a reversal? Should we throw away altcoins? What is the real logic behind the Ethereum ETF? After reading this article by Xiao Miao, you might have the answer.
#比特币 : The recent rebound of Bitcoin appears to be a consolidation on the surface, but the core is very clear — the box has not yet been broken. The upper limit of 120,000 has become a suppression zone, and I currently do not recommend fighting the trend in the short term. Last night, around 119,800, I warned everyone to be careful of a high pullback, and indeed it quickly retreated to 117K. If we open a short position now, try to wait for a sufficient rebound; don’t rush the rhythm. I’d rather miss the opportunity than get caught halfway up the mountain; a laid-back strategy still applies.
#以太坊 : From a structural perspective, ETH has not yet broken down in the short term; it maintains a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart and above. Be patient and wait for it to 'drop enough' before acting. Logically, this round of ETH's rise is not 'random'. I have mentioned this multiple times in previous articles.
In simple terms: the rise of ETH this time is being supported by real capital.
Currently, the management scale of the Ethereum ETF only accounts for 12% of the BTC ETF, significantly lower than its market cap ratio (19%), which means it is still in the 'catch-up' phase. If ETFs and institutions continue to increase their positions next year, estimated purchases could reach $20 billion, compared to less than 800,000 new supplies. This supply-demand gap will become increasingly outrageous.
So, as long as the main logical thread does not collapse, ETH is the core of this structural market.
Then the question arises, since ETH has risen so much, why are altcoins showing no movement at all?
The answer is actually very simple: there is no new capital entering the market.
Altcoins have seen little rise this round, but they drop sharply. Because they lack liquidity — without incremental funds to support them, hot money can only play 'pass the parcel' between the large market and a few hot projects.
For example, when the market corrected yesterday, altcoins directly collapsed, with a bunch of retracements exceeding 10%. This indicates that it is not altcoin season at all now. I suggest partners who want to rely on old altcoins and 'wait for the wind to come' to change their strategy; the longer you drag it out, the more you lose.
Do you remember the popular coins like 'Dian Dian Coin' and 'Future Coin' from the last bull market? Now they have long become history. We can no longer see the scene of everyone taking off; this bull market might just be the graveyard of the last round of altcoins.
If you don’t want to stop at being part of the 'altcoin funeral group', I suggest:
Conservatives: directly switch to BTC or ETH
Aggressive investors: selectively choose AI/MEME leaders mentioned in my previous articles, or mainline second-tier coins like DeFi, RWA, public chains, etc.
Alright, let’s continue!
To be honest, the performance of altcoins recently has been a bit dull. But there are still highlights. #CFX surged again by 30% today, which is quite impressive! Just in time for Conflux's seventh anniversary, the official also announced that the public chain version 3.0 will be launched in August, and they are actively participating in the pilot of 'Belt and Road' stablecoins. This wave is indeed powerful.
The #C coin recommended by Xiao Miao in the circle yesterday has had a good surge, directly soaring nearly 20% today.
Additionally, $VIRTUAL , I have already boarded early. This coin is very clear: the 4-hour chart shows a clear bottom divergence and is one of the potential stocks in the #AI sector. The bottom consolidation period has also been long enough, clearly having strong backing. As long as the entire AI sector moves a bit, it is highly likely to be the first to break out.
In the current altcoin market, you cannot blindly chase, but coins with logic and themes are still worth keeping an eye on.
Finally, let’s briefly mention three altcoins with good trends, purely personal opinions:
📌 $JUP : Standard double bottom pattern, stabilizing at the neckline, resistance turning into support, the structure is very clean. As long as it doesn't fall back into the range, look for 1.10.
📌 $ACE : Still in a sideways consolidation, but funds are slowly entering the market, standing above the 9EMA and 50SMA, waiting for a breakout with volume might lead straight to 1 dollar.
📌 #AI: The daily chart shows a double bottom; the 50SMA has completed a breakout + pullback confirmation, buying pressure is clearly increasing. If it holds the neckline, look for 0.28-0.30 dollars.
These three technical aspects are not weak; the key is whether the critical levels can break out with volume. If it breaks, don’t hesitate to go direct.
Summary: Last night, BNB's 'coin stock' invested by CZ was finally announced, with stock code #VAPE, and it opened with a nearly 10-fold surge. YZI and 10X Capital completed the acquisition through a $500 million shell resource, which is a perfect linkage between the crypto world and the US stock market.
This week in the US stock market is earnings season + strong rebound of the dollar, which may bring short-term volatility pressure. Be mindful of the rhythm, don’t blindly chase after prices, keep some bullets, and wait for opportunities.
That’s it for the article! If you’re confused in the crypto circle, consider strategizing and harvesting with me!
