$BTC

2025-07-29

⚠️ For reference only, not investment advice.

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BTC/U 1-hour chart —— A straightforward view from the perspective of short positions.

This wave of BTC tells us one thing: a rebound is not a resurrection, and jumping high is just to fall harder.

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Market observation:

• Currently around 118,440U, just bounced to the resistance level, unable to rise, and falling quickly.

• Looking back, after the last high, it directly broke through the EMA moving average, and now the rebound feels like a “soul-returning step,” a temporary bluff from the bulls.

• MACD slightly turned red, but the trading volume is not keeping up; this wave is clearly a “weak rebound.”

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My short position logic is as follows:

Open short position Already short near 118,440U, exactly at the edge of resistance.

Stop-loss point Above 118,981U, if it breaks, I’ll back off, not betting on extreme upward movements.

Target position First step to look at 117,460U, further can aim for below 117,000U.

Profit-loss ratio Currently about 1 : 1.5, reasonable; stay calm and steady if there’s a downward expectation.

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Operational attitude:

• This type of “rebound during a pullback” is most suitable for our strategy: short on rebounds, just do it.

• Keep an eye on the stop-loss, don’t get too excited; first, take advantage of the main force’s selling.

• The key point now is not to break higher; once it rises and breaks through, it means the bulls are turning around, and then I’ll pull out.

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Summary:

This is not a do-or-die bull market; it’s the rhythm of the bears. Like a cat catching a mouse, the bulls jump, and we strike. If we strike accurately, we eat well; if we miss, we accept our losses and leave without attachment.

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