#Strategy未增持BTC According to market dynamics and recent key events, here is the analysis of $TRUMP (Trump-related assets) for the upcoming week (July 29 - August 4, 2025) and operational suggestions:
📅 I. Core events and policy catalysts
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (July 30)
Policy expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged (probability 97.4%), but Powell's speech may signal a rate cut in September. If the stance is dovish, it will boost risk assets (like cryptocurrencies); if hints of a rate cut are ignored or emphasize inflation pressures, it may trigger short-term selling.
**Impact on TRUMP**: Expectations for loose policies favor the cryptocurrency sector; TRUMP, as a 'Trump trade' star asset, may benefit from expectations of improved liquidity.
China-U.S. trade negotiations (July 28-30)
Focus: Negotiations aim to extend the deadline for the suspension of tariffs (originally due on August 12). If a deferral agreement is reached, it will alleviate global trade tensions, benefiting U.S. stocks and Trump-related assets.
Risk: If negotiations break down, new measures threatened by Trump such as a '50% copper tariff' may be implemented, exacerbating market volatility.
U.S. economic data (July 31 - August 2)
PCE inflation (July 31): If data exceeds expectations (previous value 2.7%), it may reinforce high interest rate maintenance expectations, suppressing risk appetite.
Non-farm payrolls (August 2): If new jobs significantly slow down (expected 140,000 to 150,000), it may accelerate pricing for a rate cut in September, driving $TRUMP to rebound.
📊 II. Technical analysis and market sentiment
Current price and key levels
**TRUMP token**: Current price around 10.03, short-term support level 9.56, resistance level 13.80; if it breaks 13.80, it may accelerate testing 15.85 (upper boundary of the horizontal channel).
Related stocks: DJT stock price under Trump has recently doubled, if the financial report is favorable (if any), it may continue to rise; defense stocks (like Lockheed Martin) are boosted by the tariff agreement.
Market sentiment indicator
Progress on cryptocurrency legislation: The U.S. House is advancing bills (CLARITY Act) and Trump openly supports the crypto industry. If the bills pass, it may ignite $TRUMP and related concept stocks (like COIN, MSTR).
Speculative capital flow: Open interest surged by 63.9%, indicating leveraged funds betting on favorable policies, but be wary of the long-short battle under high volatility.
💼 III. Sector rotation opportunities
'Trump trade' main line
Cryptocurrency: $TRUMP, Bitcoin (policy support + ETF expectations).
Traditional energy: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), benefiting from Trump easing restrictions on fossil fuels.
Defense and infrastructure: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Caterpillar (CAT), the tariff agreement boosts military sales and infrastructure investment.
Risk hedging options
Safe-haven assets: Silver (up 33% this year), gold. If trade frictions escalate or inflation exceeds expectations, precious metals may continue their upward trend.
Defensive sectors: High-dividend utility stocks, to withstand uncertainty in interest rate policies.
💎 IV. Operational strategy
Scenario trigger conditions suggest a bullish breakout on the Fed's dovish stance + extension of China-U.S. tariffs, increase holdings in TRUMP and defense stocks, target 13.80-15.85 for consolidation; if data is flat + policy ambiguity, trade TRUMP in a range (9.56-$13.80) while bearish on a hawkish Fed + stop-loss on $TRUMP if trade negotiations break down, shift to gold/silver for hedging.
Notes:
Closely monitor Powell's speech on July 30 and the progress of China-U.S. negotiations, as event-driven market volatility may amplify by over 30%.
If TRUMP breaks below the 9.56 support with heavy volume, be wary of on-chain selling pressure (high whale holding ratio).
💎 Summary
In the coming week, $TRUMP's trend is neutral to bullish, but constrained by macro events:
Upside opportunities: Dovish Fed, passage of cryptocurrency legislation, or favorable trade outcomes, target $15.
Downside risk: Inflation exceeds expectations, Trump's policies are inconsistent, or regulations become stricter, which may test the $9 support.
Recommendation: Focus on event-driven strategies, set strict stop-losses, prioritize sectors with high policy certainty (defense, energy).
