Price strongly breaks through the $3900 four-year resistance, surging 3.59% in 24h, but the daily RSI of 78.76 enters the danger zone. Long and short hundred billion chips face off:
▫️ Battlefield coordinates
- Short squeeze engine: $3900
Standing firm will trigger the liquidation of $740 million in short positions, targeting $4200
- Death line: $3700
Breaking will trigger the strong liquidation of $1.528 billion long positions, waterfall test at $3550
- Institutional defense line: $3550-$3600
BlackRock ETF cost zone, breaking it will reverse the trend
▫️ Main force trump card
- BlackRock purchases $2.5 billion over 6 days (Average of 42,000 per day)
- Public companies hold 740,000 ETH, with a backlog of 644,000 in the staking unlock queue (≈$2.34 billion selling pressure)
- Daily bullish flag target $4800 (Must hold above $3920)
☢️ Nuclear crisis warning
1. Whales deposit 3516 ETH to Binance (Profit-taking at $2.63 million)
2. Unsettled futures at $60.57 billion reach historical peak → Volatility bomb
3. SEC denies SOL ETF countdown (Trigger for a collapse)
▶ Battlefield orders
✓ Holders (Cost <$3500):
- Reducing positions by 30% at $3950-$4000 → Locking in profits
- Set hard stop loss at $3750 → Prevent leverage cascade
- $3550 below for partial replenishment → Eating institutional blood chips
✓ Empty holders:
- Set limit order at $3600 (Institutional accumulation area), stop loss at $3550
- $3920 breakthrough chase → Target $4200 (Stop loss $3800)
✓ Hedging plan:
Buy $3500 put options → Betting on a black swan
> Ultimate judgment: Hold $3700 to keep the fire, break $3920 to burn the shorts
The deflation narrative of $6000 in 2025 remains unchanged, but 75% volatility requires positions ≤15% #ETH重返3800 $ETH