24-hour increase of 6.77% breaks annual high, but daily RSI of 68.99 approaches overbought zone. Key positions and operational logic: Core position
- Breakout level: 4100
If stabilized, it will trigger the liquidation of 864 million short positions, target 4350
- Support zone: 3880-3900
Intensive liquidation zone for long positions, breaking could trigger a cascade down to 3749
- Trend bottom line: 3749
20-day moving average + institutional cost overlapping zone
Driving factors for long and short positions
Bullish logic
- Institutions net bought 667 million over 4 days (SharpLink and other listed companies continue to increase holdings)
- Weekly breakout at 3800 four-year resistance, technical pattern points to 4800
Short risk
- 644,000 pledged ETH waiting to be unlocked (potential selling pressure of 2.34 billion)
- RSI overbought correction historical average 10% pullback
▶ Operational framework
✓ Position holders
- 4100 Reduce position by 30% (to avoid overbought pullback)
- Move stop loss up to 3950 (to prevent leveraged chain reaction)
- Look for opportunities to replenish below 3800
✓ Hold U and observe
- Chase the rise after breaking 4105 (4-hour close confirmation), target 4350, stop loss 4050
- Place limit order at 3880, stop loss at 3830
✓ Hedging suggestion
Buy 3800 put options (SEC black swan protection)
> Key conclusion
> Short-term direction depends on the validity of the 4100 breakout, medium-term target of 4800 must hold 3880 support.
> Single asset position suggestion ≤15%, use caution with leverage if 30-day volatility >75% #ETH突破4000 $ETH
