Recent market fundamentals and technicals resonate, and the trend has entered a critical stage.
In terms of Ethereum, approximately $2.54 billion in ETH is queued to exit the PoS network, while new staking is only $1.01 billion, reflecting a net outflow trend in staking liquidity, indicating a lack of confidence in continued locking. If a large amount of ETH is truly unlocked and flows into exchanges, it will create liquidity selling pressure, especially when ETH is at a high stage, one must be wary of the dual threat of "profit-taking + liquidity shock".
Regarding altcoins, this week several coins including SUI, JUP, ENA, OP will face unlocking worth over $100 million, creating short-term profit-taking pressure, and related projects should be avoided.
BTC is maintaining a range of 120K-116K on the daily chart, with trading volume continuing to shrink. If it cannot quickly break through 120K, one should be cautious of a drop below MA30 (114.8K) triggering a correction in the short term. ETH, benefiting from the ten-year anniversary positive stimulus, could aim for 4500 if it breaks through 4000 with volume, but if it falls below 3750, it may enter a pullback.
Overall, the current market direction is still unclear. It is recommended that investors adhere to the principle of "better to miss out than to lose money" and prioritize laying out clear and logical certainty opportunities.
