SUI is a new generation Layer 1 blockchain launched in 2023, quickly attracting a large number of developers with its high execution speed, modular architecture, and Move language. However, for most investors, one of the biggest questions is: will the fixed monthly release of SUI put long-term pressure on the price?
This article will delve into the unlocking patterns, flow logic, and actual market responses of SUI, helping you truly understand the core fact that 'unlocking ≠ dumping'.
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What is the scale of SUI's monthly unlock?
The total supply of SUI is 10 billion tokens, released not all at once but through linear and phased unlocking. According to the current progress, approximately 40 to 55 million SUI tokens are released each month, accounting for about 0.4% to 0.55% of the total supply.
This ratio may seem considerable, but compared to the daily trading volumes exceeding hundreds of millions at mainstream exchanges like Binance and OKX, the actual selling pressure on the price is very limited. Moreover, not all of these released tokens flow into the market.
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Where does the funding from SUI's unlock go?
Many people think that unlocking is equivalent to selling, but in reality, the targets and flow of SUI's unlock are strictly categorized into four types:
The first category is 'community reserves'. This part accounts for 40% to 50% of the total unlock volume and is primarily used for developer rewards, ecosystem promotion, community building, etc., such as projects like Volo, Cetus, Scallop, etc. These funds typically enter ecosystem funds or incentive systems and do not go directly to exchanges.
The second category is 'early contributors and the Mysten Labs team'. This part accounts for about 20% to 25%, belonging to long-term locked distribution followed by linear release, with a slow actual circulation speed, mainly used for operations and development salaries, resulting in limited selling pressure.
The third category is 'investors and strategic funds'. This part accounts for about 15% to 20%, including early investor institutions like a16z, Jump, and Binance Labs. Although they hold large amounts, most have agreement restrictions and clear unlocking rhythms, making short-term concentrated selling unlikely.
Finally, there are the 'Staking Rewards and Treasury', which account for roughly 10% of the overall unlock. These tokens are part of the network's operational mechanism, directly benefiting validators and stakers, and essentially belong to the internal circulation of the system, not entering the secondary market to create selling pressure.
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What was the market's actual response in 2025?
From January to July 2025, the price performance shows that SUI's monthly unlocks hardly led to consistent market downturns. For instance, price increases were observed in March, June, and even on or after the unlocking day, reflecting the market's full expectation of a fixed rhythm of unlocking.
The drops in certain months, such as February and July, are often related to overall market volatility and changes in capital flow, rather than concentrated selling pressure caused by unlocking.
More importantly, the hacking incident of Cetus in May 2025 caused short-term market fluctuations, but based on on-chain data and price changes observed, this incident has no direct correlation with SUI's unlock and token release. Price changes are more likely due to market panic and capital withdrawal, rather than pressure caused by unlocking.
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Why is it said that SUI's unlocking mechanism is actually relatively conservative?
Compared to other public chains, SUI's unlocking mechanism has three advantages:
1. The unlock ratio is small, only about 0.5% per month, far lower than many new public chains that often exceed 1%;
2. The targets of unlocking are dispersed, with no single holder dominating market sentiment;
3. All release progress is transparent and public, with no surprise large releases.
Such a design is actually more stable in the crypto market and helps build investor confidence in the project for the long term.
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Not every unlocking is a risk.
What truly determines the value of tokens is never the release speed, but the use and benefits after the release. SUI's unlocking mechanism has already been priced in by the market; the key is not whether the tokens will be released, but rather:
Do they flow into exchanges and become selling pressure?
Has it been effectively allocated to ecosystem development and developer rewards?
Does it generate new users and network effects?
In the crypto world, confidence is always more precious than supply and demand. And SUI is a prime example of gradually transforming unlocking into value.