Bitcoin plummeted to $105,000 while Ethereum's decline was relatively small; most altcoins dropped by 10%, returning to previous lows overnight. I took profits on my $120,000 Bitcoin short position at the oversold target of $115,000, gaining 414%, and currently plan to buy low.
Reasons for Today's Plunge
1. Options Settlement
Options worth over $15.4 billion for Bitcoin and Ethereum are set to expire today.
2. Fill CME Gap
Bitcoin needs to fill the gap of $115600-$114400 (contract price around $115050-$113850), may dip to around $113.
3. Whales Dumping
Galaxy Digital has sold Bitcoin in installments to exchanges, selling 20,000 coins, causing Bitcoin to break below the short-term trend line and decline significantly.
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC support at $115000 is the EMA 20-day line support and the 0.5 position of this round's market launch. If it fills the gap of $115600-$114400 (contract price around $115050-$113850), it may drop to around $113350. The current position is unable to rise, indicating insufficient subsequent funds, and naturally, problems will arise over time.
Trading Suggestions:
Gradually place long orders at $105355, $115055, $113855, $112850 (extreme low point), with a stop-loss at $112000; shorting is not recommended, as it is difficult to short at a high, holding high short positions or only withdrawing part of the profits is advisable.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH is currently performing strongly, not breaking below yesterday's low of $3500, and the daily candlestick ends with a doji after two consecutive bearish days. If the market weakens, it needs to effectively break below $3500; the daily midline support is around $3200, key attention should be on the gain or loss of $3500, breaking below may lead to a deep pullback. The 4-hour level rebound strength is weakening, with prices repairing around the midline.
Trading Suggestions:
Resistance at $3680 and $3780 (consider shorting); support at $3520 and $3470 (consider buying low), if it breaks below $3400 or weakens to around $3200.
Altcoin Analysis
The market has accepted the expectation of a pullback, with most people holding altcoins, and having already fallen three to four days in advance. For altcoin bottom-fishing, prioritize leading quality targets, focusing on those that have established reserve warehouses. I mentioned this once before, and I’m mentioning it again today. If you don't know which targets to layout, you can choose from the coins listed below.
First Tier: BTC, ETH, XRP, HBAR, XLM, PENGU
Second Tier: BONK, SUI, PNUT, TAO, AAVE
Third Tier: BCH, SEI, DOGE, TON
On-chain Target Attention
Wangchai: Market cap back to $5 million, stabilizing for a day on the hourly chart, at the lower boundary of the range, hope to hold steady.
LOOPY: A coin with the will of small Korean influence, BONKGUY retweeted, may ferment later, with little address movement in the front row, can enter at the 1.6M stop-loss horizontal position (original expectation 1.8-2.4).
AOL: Possibly DARK on BONK, keep an eye on it, previously saw a strong washout, with few KOLs remaining (quality indicators), watch if the 1.5-2M position can stabilize, enter during consolidation.