Federal Reserve's Williams mentioned that the labor market is cooling, and his attitude towards a rate cut in September is relatively cautious. However, whether it's in September or the fourth quarter, a rate cut will definitely happen; it's just a matter of time. The market needs to go through a process of easing first, so it can rebound better later.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $383 million, mainly due to long positions being liquidated.
The current market focus is not on spot trading but on futures. It has been observed that many large funds that shorted have already taken profits and exited, which is something to watch for. The volatility in the cryptocurrency market is inherently much greater than in traditional assets, and combined with leverage, becoming rich or losing everything can happen in an instant. If you don't have enough capability to withstand risks, it's best not to touch futures; otherwise, you may just be giving away money.
In the past few days, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index just entered the greed zone, but after several recent declines, it has fallen back to a neutral level of 52. It seems unlikely to reach an extremely greedy state in the short term; otherwise, that would be an excellent opportunity to cash out.
If you sell when the fear and greed index is above 70 and buy when it's below 20, operating twice a year, would you make a guaranteed profit?
In the early morning, BTC touched 111,950 twice, which is the upper bound emphasized recently and yesterday's first support level; ETH's lowest was 3,353.4, which also precisely hit yesterday's first support.
Yesterday's BTC strategy: first position at 113,000, add position at 111,750, aiming for a spike at 112,000, just 100 away (lowest 111,850), slightly passive. Those who reduced positions or exited on Friday evening, according to my morning analysis, had chances for break-even, small losses, or small profits; if positions remained unchanged and were passively hit, that’s not advisable. Those who did not exit at the break point should have triggered stop losses early Friday morning.
Market analysis and trading strategy
Currently, the market trend shows that after continuous declines recently, there has been a rebound today, forming a long bullish candlestick, indicating a strengthening of short-term bullish momentum. On the 4-hour chart, prices broke below the short-term consolidation range, and the candlestick is under pressure from the short-term moving averages, maintaining a downward trend; however, smaller time frames show signs of stabilization, and short-term rebound repair opportunities can be monitored.
The market is mainly consolidating; both long and short positions can be taken. A decline is a good thing; after rising for more than a month, we've been desperately seeking spot opportunities. Isn't the spot opportunity right around the corner now?
BTC trading strategy
Short position: Enter at 115,000-114,000, stop loss above 116,000, target 111,300-110,400.
Long position: Enter at 110,000-111,000, stop loss below 109,000, target 113,500-114,500.
ETH trading strategy
Short position: Enter at 3,550-3,510, stop loss above 3,600, target 3,360-3,310.
Long position: Enter at 3,300-3,340, stop loss below 3,250, target 3,460-3,500.
Trading suggestions: The market is always changing; strictly implement stop losses to avoid emotional trading and control position risks. Focus on consolidating operations, capturing short-term rebound opportunities, primarily taking high short positions, and adjusting flexibly. Volatility is limited on weekends; maintain patience and discipline.
There are no gods in the cryptocurrency world who can accurately predict price fluctuations. Remember these points: don't panic, don't be greedy, and control your position well, so you can survive until the next bull market.
When the market is good, you may feel like you're sailing smoothly, thinking you're amazing and making profits no matter what you do. But when the market turns bad and starts to decline, you find yourself stuck because you bought in with all your funds, and then you complain about the market's performance.
The cryptocurrency market cannot always be good; fluctuations are common. What we need to do is be present when prices are rising; during declines, we should enter slowly and try to minimize losses.
