The topic of "扒庄" (shorting) has been quite popular these days, so let me share my thoughts.
In fact, "扒庄" and the analysis logic on the Bitcoin chain are quite similar: Bitcoin looks at data such as long-term and short-term holders, exchange stock, etc., while "扒庄" looks at the address information of whale investors to distinguish which are the main players and which are large retail investors.
For example, buying 1 million USELESS at a 300 million dollar order book does not count as a main player. Main players emphasize teamwork and matrix structure, characterized by a batch of addresses gradually building positions in the early price stages, not buying all at once, but increasing positions step by step within a certain price and time range. When the price rises, most of the top 100 addresses are likely to be part of the main player matrix, and those who can consolidate and wash out have basically all main players.
However, one should not blindly believe in the sayings around "扒庄," such as "the front row chips are concentrated and will soar," most of which are unreliable. Main players will not announce their pump in advance, and once the hot trend shifts or Bitcoin plummets, they will quickly take profits and retreat; following them may only result in catching a large bearish candle.
Take Ani's rebound as an example; one can judge without looking at address data: after all the popular coins have been rapidly washed out, there will at least be a doubling trend; the strength of the rebound is related to the Bitcoin trend and narrative, and this has been the case with previous popular coins. The main player will not sell off all their goods at the first peak; they will at least touch the top 1-3 times and slowly offload, which makes logical sense.
Therefore, combining "扒庄" with narrative is correct, but one should not hard short, be careful not to provoke the main players.
