#ETH突破4400 🔥🔥BTC/ETH capital landscape changes

As of yesterday, the net growth of BTC's realized market cap 7D-RC (Realized Cap, or RC) has shrunk to 5.8 billion USD. Although the price is still near historical highs, the inflow of real capital is not as strong as before.

Here, let's take a look at historical data. In the three trend cycles of this round that broke historical highs, the net growth of BTC's 7-day RC exceeded 20 billion USD (Figure 1); among them, March 2024 was 25.9 billion, December 2024 was 27.8 billion, and July 2025 was 22.6 billion. In the same period, the net growth of ETH's 7-day RC was above 5 billion USD; among them, March 2024 was 6.2 billion, December 2024 was 4.8 billion, and July 2025 was 5.6 billion (Figure 2), also undoubtedly the second in command.

Assuming ETH's 7D-RC is 4.7 billion USD, and BTC's net growth is also 20 billion USD, we can optimistically think that under the expectation of favorable interest rate cuts, funds are entering the market on a large scale, while the actual BTC's 7D-RC is less than 6 billion USD, giving a feeling of insufficient surplus for the landlord's family.

🔥🔥🔥 The coin market itself has no innovative narrative.

The cryptocurrency market has basically digested the pricing of the US dollar interest rate cuts. The realization of interest rate cut expectations may be the time when the market peaks.

The cryptocurrency market lacks endogenous innovation momentum and completely relies on the liquidity of the US stock market and the behavior of listed companies hoarding coins to support prices. Especially in a high-interest-rate environment, altcoins find it hard to perform. Maintaining high US dollar interest rates will directly suppress the asset class with the highest risk appetite. The US dollar is currently in a high-interest-rate period of 4.25% to 4.5%, and the coin market does not have enough liquidity to push up altcoins.

Originally, the funds in the coin market itself can barely support Bitcoin and Ethereum, let alone have extra liquidity to boost altcoins.

Do not fantasize about altcoin season. Altcoins need a daily stablecoin inflow of >500 million USD (2021 bull market level), while the average daily net inflow of stablecoins in Q2 2025 is only 80 million USD.

Currently, there is still a considerable amount of money entering the Bitcoin ETF in the US stock market every day. Although Bitcoin is not at a new high, its price has not been moving much. Before March last year, it was the craziest time for MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETF to buy Bitcoin, but after the buying pressure exhausted, Bitcoin still retraced from 73k to around 50k, a decline of 30%. The same goes for Ethereum; the buying pressure in the US stock market has been exhausted, and the subsequent exhaustion of buying will lead to a peak.

🔥🔥🔥 Survival > Profit cycle

The current market essence is a liquidity arbitrage game under high US dollar interest rates, rather than being driven by technological innovation. Before the interest rate cut expectations are fully realized and the buying momentum of listed companies runs out, remain extremely cautious, follow the market, do not wish to gain from both sides, have a good plan, and control positions reasonably. More real-time private messages to join the community for updates.