Fundamentals:
Money earned in the crypto circle in June was lost again in July, which is frustrating, equivalent to two months of work going to waste.
After a two-week cooling-off period to avoid getting overly excited, the crypto market may need to pause for a moment, as there currently aren't any medium to long-term entry opportunities. Moreover, chasing long positions is not part of my trading system, especially at the end of a bull market, trying to chase long positions at historical highs carries immense risks, and there could be significant drops at any time, potentially 10,000 to 18,000 points. In such cases, short-term profits may also be discounted due to multiple stop-loss sweeps.
If I must say, spot can indeed be bought a little, options can be considered, but I don't plan to operate with large capital. Probably just take about 40-50,000 USDT to speculate on the rebound of SOL and altcoins.
Let's pause the analysis for now. For those chasing long positions, manage your position sizes and leverage well. Chasing Bitcoin may not be as meaningful as SOL.
Regarding US stocks, it is inevitable that next year will be a bear market. While the S&P 500 continues to set new highs, only 88 more companies on the NYSE have set new highs compared to those that have set new lows. It has been noted before that the breadth of the current US stock market is very poor, which has historically been a precursor to weak market performance. Since 1972, if the S&P 500 breaks new highs while the number of companies setting new highs and new lows is less than 100, the subsequent 12-month returns are always below average.
The bear market in US stocks will not be less than 13 months, but regardless of how long the bear market lasts, it generally meets an 80% decline after 13 months. Therefore, one can start dollar-cost averaging after 13 months or begin after breaking below the weekly MA60.
Regarding gold, the current market top has lasted for 3 months and is currently in a narrow range. Referring to 2011, the market top lasted for a full year. Therefore, trading gold should not be rushed; currently, it can be operated on a range of 3,200 to 3,400.
Back to the market:
First, regarding Bitcoin, since it has already broken upward and crossed the 105,000 line, from all angles, it can no longer be viewed bearishly. It should be said that the daily wave starting from 112,000 has already ended at 98,100.
Although I personally lost a lot on short positions, fortunately, I made quite a bit on short positions in Ethereum and SOL in June. Overall, June/July was a break-even situation. On the other hand, it seems that everyone is not very keen on going long now. I was quite surprised yesterday because after it rose to 102,000 in the morning, the fee directly dropped to 0.01%, and then the contract price was above the spot price, which indicates that the shorts have already been wiped out.
As a result, I checked last night, and the fee was dropped again to 0.001%. After one explosive move, a new wave entered the market. Now the position is light, and the main force can easily pull up by several thousand points.
Firstly, from a larger perspective, where will the weekly wave starting from 74,500 go? It is clear that points cannot be used for calculation; it can only be viewed in proportions. Thus, the weekly wave of Bitcoin starting from 74,500 will create divergence and end the bull market as long as it does not exceed 167,000. Of course, it realistically won't reach that high; we will continue to discuss how high it can go.
From the daily level, it can currently be confirmed that a daily wave has started running from 98,100. This wave's increase meets at 135,600 and will not exceed 147,100. Normally, it should be closer to 135,600, so let's assume it will go to 138,000.
From a timing perspective, if the main upward wave starts in July, then the peak could be in August if it moves quickly, or in September if it moves slowly, depending on how fast July moves (whether the increase is over 30%). Previously, it was said that October might peak, but it now seems that the bull market may end early in August/September.
The specific path is roughly to go to 138,000, retrace to 115,000, then go to 139,000, ending the bull market.
Of course, is it possible that it still peaks in October? It is indeed possible, but the structure will be more complex, needing to build another central structure. From a timing perspective, it would be July up, August down, September main up, and October peak, with the peak also reaching 159,000. From a point perspective, it would roughly go to 138,000, retrace to 115,000, then go to 158,000, retrace to 135,000, and then go to 159,000. The difference between this possibility and the previous one is whether there will be a main upward wave in September.
If there is a main upward wave in September, the logic still relies on interest rate cuts driving the market up, with a peak in the following month;
If there is no main upward wave in September, then the interest rate cut benefits in July/August will be realized early, leading to the interest rate cut benefits in September turning into negatives.
This is about Bitcoin. To summarize: There are two possibilities for the peak of this bull market. If it peaks in August/September, then the main wave in July would top at around 139,000. If it peaks in October, then besides July, there will be another exaggerated wave in September, with an increase of no less than 40,000 points, and the final level should be at 159,000.
From the perspective of Ethereum/SOL/alts, since the exchange rates have stabilized, it can still be played for a rebound through spot trading. Currently, the altcoin index is only 29, which normally should see another push to 80+ this year.
In terms of operations:
1. Buy ETH/SOL and altcoin spot, with ETH/SOL allocated at 2% position and 20x leverage.
2. Buy call options on Bitcoin (when Bitcoin's daily chart breaks through the upper Bollinger band, the average upward trend will continue for another month and one week), with options expiring before the end of August, bullish above 136,000.
Note: You can choose to buy either Ethereum or SOL, depending on your belief.
Ethereum believers:
The exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin should be able to rise to around 0.045. If calculated at 138,000, it's 6,200; if at 158,000, it's 7,100. Ethereum's next daily wave should at least first reach above 4,200 before any significant pullback.
SOL believers:
The exchange rate of SOL against Bitcoin should be able to reach around 0.0021. If calculated at 138,000, it's 290; if at 158,000, it's 330. SOL's next daily wave should at least first reach above 250 before any significant pullback.
3. If it first reaches above 136,000 in August/September, buy put options to expire four months later, targeting below 82,500.
4. If put options are closed, there will definitely be a main upward wave in September, starting to lay out short positions in the week of October 20, with take-profit still at 82,500.
Keep monitoring.$BTC $ETH $XRP
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