Now basically every couple of days there's a new high, but the current rise in Bitcoin isn't due to more buying, but because no one is willing to sell. To put it simply, the circulating chips are getting fewer, and the number of sellers is decreasing, so let's not think about a big drop for now.


Looking at the exchange flow data from the past year, more and more Bitcoin is being withdrawn, and there aren't many coins left on the exchanges. Because those who really want to sell are almost gone, even if there is some fluctuation, it won't cause a big wave unless systemic risks arise.


That being said, this week can still be expected. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all scheduled, especially CPI, where market expectations are quite low. If the data comes in unexpectedly cold, the expectations for interest rate cuts in September might go down the drain.


There will definitely be some fluctuations in the short term, but it's just a matter of a few days. July and August still have crucial data ahead, which might pull it back. One more thing to note, weekend fluctuations are a bit strange.


From 8 AM to 6 PM, treat it as the Asian session, and at night as the American session, and you will find something interesting. The Asian session is stable, while the American session crashes. Isn't this the familiar taste of 2023? Some are buying, while Coinbase is selling.


Back to the market, many people see high prices and automatically think it should drop. But why don't you think about last October when it pulled from 70K to 100K? Did it retrace at 80K? Did it retrace at 90K? No! At most, it touched 88666 and then went straight to 100K!


And now this trend is exactly the same as the wave from 70,000 to 110,000 last year. The overall trend is upward, and the acceleration hasn't even started yet, and you're shorting? You must be crazy.


Although there are no problems with Bitcoin, altcoins need to be cautious. Altcoins are currently relying on sentiment + liquidity, but the problem is that neither of them is present. If there is a correction, the first to collapse will be altcoins, not Bitcoin.


The current structure still belongs to the mid-stage of a bullish trend, and the continuation pattern is very stable. Technically, it's similar to those weekly lines in February and November 2024, which are all halfway through a trend, not at a top. However, the trading volume has indeed not kept up, and the spot premium is somewhat lacking.


So if it rises to the weekly overbought line around 134431, and the momentum doesn't keep up, then it might truly be a top. But as long as it doesn't fall below 102394, the logic of the bull market is still there. Left-side predictions are just guessing bullish or bearish, while right-side following the trend is sensible.

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