#PowellVsTrump Main summary of the current situation (as of July 16–17, 2025):
1. Donald Trump is once again considering firing the Chair of The Fed, Jerome Powell, although he later referred to that move as "very unlikely unless due to fraud."
2. Trump has asked dozens of Republican House members whether he should fire Powell, and has received strong support from them. However, he emphasized that he has not prepared a formal firing letter.
3. Trump's main reasons: dissatisfaction with The Fed's interest rate policy, which he feels is "too slow" in lowering rates, as well as criticism of the $2.5 billion renovation costs of The Fed building, which he deems "excessive."
4. Market response briefly panicked—the stock market and dollar fell, bond yields rose—but calmed down after Trump said the firing was still "very unlikely."
5. Key market figures, such as Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan) and Senator Thom Tillis, warn that the Fed must remain independent, as political intervention could undermine the stability of the US economy and global credibility.
6. Legally, firing the Chair of the Fed before the term ends can only be "for cause" (serious misconduct), not due to differences in interest rate policy. Powell is also expected to remain until his term ends in May 2026.
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What is happening?
Trump is using Powell as a political tool: raising the idea of firing him, rallying support from the party, and accusing his administration of being too extravagant.
However, he retracted that statement and made “fraud” the only acceptable reason for letting Powell go—which he described as "very unlikely."
A wave of concern is growing in the markets and among observers due to the potential political interference in The Fed's monetary policy.
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Impacts moving forward
Financial markets: Still somewhat fearful—anxiety has eased now, but uncertainty remains.
The Fed's credibility: This threat reinforces the narrative that the independence of the central bank is being tested.
US Politics: Trump seems to want to use this Fed issue as a political weapon, especially if he is re-elected in 2024.
Long-term decision: Powell is most likely to remain in charge until his term ends in May 2026, unless there are legal charges or proven fraud.
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In summary: Trump is sounding the alarm about the possibility of firing Powell, but so far it remains just a political bluff. Market pressures are appearing, but Powell is still relatively safe—at least until this summer.
⏰ Key date:
Internal discussions with House members took place on Tuesday night, July 15, 2025.
Trump's public statements and the wave of market turmoil occurred on July 16–17, 2025
