U.S. inflation data shows: June CPI annual rate at 2.7%, matching the expected value of 2.70%, up from the previous value of 2.40%. June core CPI annual rate at 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.00%, but higher than the previous value of 2.80%. June PPI annual rate at 2.3%, lower than the expected value of 2.5%, with the previous value revised from 2.60% to 2.7%. CPI inflation slightly increased; PPI unexpectedly fell short of expectations, with June PPI annual rate recorded at 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024. Goldman Sachs stated that underlying inflation remains relatively mild, and the Federal Reserve is still in a wait-and-see mode. If underlying inflation continues to remain mild, the possibility of restarting the rate cut cycle in the fall still exists.
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The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency jointly issued guidance on bank institutions providing custodial services for cryptocurrency assets. The statement clarified that banks can provide custodial services for cryptocurrency assets in either a trust or non-trust capacity, but must strictly manage the security risks associated with cryptographic keys. Regulators emphasized that banks must establish a comprehensive risk management framework, including key generation and storage security, anti-money laundering compliance, third-party risk management, and comprehensive audit procedures. On Tuesday, the U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass a procedural vote on cryptocurrency legislation. The House Democratic whip stated: There are no additional cryptocurrency bills planned for today in the House. The failure of this vote resulted in three cryptocurrency bills, including stablecoin regulations, being unable to enter the formal review stage. A re-vote may occur early Thursday or next week. Early Thursday morning, media reports showed that the U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural vote on cryptocurrency legislation. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that as of the second quarter of 2025, Tether holds more than $127 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. Standard Chartered Bank announced that it has become a globally systemically important bank offering deliverable BTC and ETH spot services, having launched spot services for BTC and ETH for institutional clients through its UK branch. 8marketcap data showed that ETH's market capitalization rose to $375.5 billion, surpassing Johnson & Johnson, ranking 30th in global asset market capitalization.
Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, stated that there is a structural imbalance between surging demand and decreasing supply, making the likelihood of a long-term correction increasingly small. Currently, the positive sentiment in the market far outweighs the negative, and the demand for BTC continues to rise, with BTC's fundamentals leaning towards tightening. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, noted that the search interest for the keyword 'Bitcoin' on Google has not significantly increased, which may indicate low interest from retail investors. Despite BTC reaching an all-time high, retail investors have yet to enter the market. Bernstein analysts expect a 'long and grueling crypto bull market' and reaffirm their prediction that BTC will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026. This cycle is significantly different from previous retail-driven booms due to institution-led growth, clearer regulations, and support from the U.S. government. Currently, BTC ETFs have over $150 billion in assets under management (including BlackRock's IBIT at $84 billion), and this structural allocation trend will drive BTC toward the $200,000 target. On July 15, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw inflows of $403.1 million, ETH spot ETFs saw inflows of $192.3 million, and spot Solana ETFs saw inflows of $3.3 million. SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by approximately 74,656 ETH from July 7 to 13, bringing its total holdings to about 280,706 ETH. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the size of BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT could reach $100 billion this summer, having already reached $88 billion.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that new highs historically lead to an average increase of 20% in the following two months, predicting that BTC prices could reach $133,000, with some consolidation expected in the near term and a possibility of reaching $160,000 by the end of the year. Jack Yi, founder of LD Capital, stated: When the market fears missing out (FOMO), it is essential to decisively reduce leverage exposure and patiently wait for new opportunities, looking forward to the certainty of rate cut expectations in August and September. Trump stated: 'Happy Crypto Week, the House is about to vote on the bill, which aims to make the U.S. a leader in the digital asset space. Digital assets represent the future, and we will work together with the Senate and the House to push for more related legislation to pass.' Inflation data shows: The U.S. June CPI annual rate at 2.7%, matching the expected value of 2.70%, up from the previous value of 2.40%. June core CPI annual rate at 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.00%, but higher than the previous value of 2.80%. CPI inflation rose moderately, with core CPI rising below expectations for the fifth consecutive month.
June PPI annual rate at 2.3%, lower than the expected value of 2.5%, with the previous value revised from 2.60% to 2.7%. Goldman Sachs stated that underlying inflation remains relatively mild, and the CPI reports for July and August will be crucial hurdles to cross. The Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see mode; if underlying inflation continues to remain mild, the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting the rate cut cycle in the fall still exists.
Trump stated: 'Consumer prices are sluggish; the Federal Reserve should immediately lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve should cut rates by 3 percentage points (300 basis points); the inflation rate is very low. The Federal Reserve should lower rates to below 1%. Basant is an alternative candidate to replace the Federal Reserve head, but I am satisfied with Basant's performance as Treasury Secretary.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: The formal process for selecting the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has begun, with the selection proceeding at Trump's pace. June CPI inflation rose moderately, with the PPI annual rate recorded at 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024. The PPI remained flat, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance; rate cut pricing remained unchanged. Futures still indicate a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in September. If July's inflation data remains at this level, the Federal Reserve will face significant pressure to maintain current rates. While Trump urged Powell to cut rates, he is also working to push the House of Representatives to pass cryptocurrency legislation to further connect digital assets with the traditional financial system. Early Thursday morning, media reports showed that the U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural vote on cryptocurrency legislation, with a final vote expected this week.
On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index increasing 0.07%, the S&P 500 index increasing 0.16%, gold rising 0.97%, BTC rising 1.6%, and ETH rising 8.2%, reaching $3,300, with altcoins following suit. July has gathered 'the disputes over Federal Reserve rate cuts, the disputes over Powell's successor, and the disputes over cryptocurrency legislation', making it difficult to predict the short-term, while the long-term is leaning toward positive developments. The bull market has arrived and is unlikely to turn back; short-term disputes will not change the long-term outcome. When the Federal Reserve cuts rates and injects liquidity, fish will grow, and shrimp and aquatic plants will also thrive; the last time this happened was in 2020-2021. After more inflation data is released in August and September, the path to rate cuts may become clearer, hoping this bull market proceeds smoothly and recoups investments. Also, pay attention to risks!