On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index up 0.28%, the S&P 500 index up 0.53%, and the Dow Jones index up 0.92%. Among them, the S&P 500 index reached a new high. Goldman Sachs expects: the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates next week and begin to cut rates in the remaining three meetings, with two more rate cuts expected in early 2026.
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Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett: The Trump Digital Assets Task Force is preparing its first major report on cryptocurrency policy, which is the result of months of collaboration between task force leaders David Sacks, Bo Hines, and senior officials from the U.S. Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce, SEC, and CFTC, aimed at implementing Trump's executive order signed in January to strengthen U.S. leadership in the cryptocurrency sector. The report is expected to include regulatory and legislative recommendations, though specifics are not yet clear. One of the world's largest market makers, Citadel Securities, urged the SEC to implement equal regulation for tokenized stocks and traditional stocks, stating that the SEC should not grant exemptions from securities rules, and recommended advancing rule-making through roundtable discussions, with the committee needing to establish a prudent and transparent evaluation process, including a public consultation phase and a complete cost-benefit analysis, focusing on market liquidity and investor protection. The ETH validator withdrawal queue reached the longest waiting time in over a year on Tuesday, with about 519,000 ETH queued to exit the network, with delays extending to over 9 days. 357,000 ETH are waiting to enter the network, with the admission queue already extending beyond 6 days.
Arkham data shows that after Elon Musk's SpaceX moved $152 million in BTC for the first time in three years on Tuesday, SpaceX and Tesla still hold 18,486 BTC. (The Wall Street Journal) reports: Musk's allies are raising up to $12 billion to support the xAI chip project, as the startup is rapidly consuming funds. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the conversion of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund to an ETF, covering 10 assets. The SEC also stated: it will review this authorization action, and the approval will be suspended until the SEC makes a further decision. QCP Capital indicated: several indicators recently show that the altcoin season may have quietly begun, with the altcoin season index surpassing 50, reaching a new high since December last year, with institutional capital becoming the main force driving this round of increase. The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. provides a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance. Institutions like BlackRock have significantly increased confidence, with optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter market. Currently, BTC's market share has dropped from 64% to 60%, while ETH's market share has risen to 11.6%. Overall, a new round of altcoin market may have officially started.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated: Trump's economic measures created credit growth flowing into cryptocurrencies, with stablecoin issuers purchasing treasury bonds to cover the U.S. deficit, predicting that BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of this year, and ETH will reach $10,000. On July 22, $68 million flowed out of the U.S. BTC spot ETF, while $533.8 million flowed into the ETH spot ETF, with BTC spot ETF experiencing net outflows for two consecutive days. The REX - Osprey SOL spot ETF saw inflows of $12.6 million, with a total of $105.4 million since its listing. Galaxy Research reported that ETH ETF inflows last week reached a historical high of $2.182 billion, more than double the previous week; BTC ETF recorded the seventh-largest weekly net inflow last week, reaching $2.385 billion. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyttart stated: Positive signals have emerged for the physical purchase and redemption mechanism for BTC and ETH ETFs, as five funds listed on CBOE recently submitted amended documents to the SEC, indicating that regulators are actively communicating with fund managers and adjusting details, possibly paving the way for the physical purchase and redemption mechanism. The new head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, stated in an interview with CNBC: ETH is not a security, and it is encouraging to see listed companies adopt BTC and cryptocurrencies as financial reserve assets.
Trump mentioned Powell, stating: he will soon be out; Powell is keeping interest rates at an excessively high level, the economy is strong, and rates should be maintained at 1%; rates should be lowered by 3 percentage points (300 basis points), or even lower. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated: there are no signs that Powell should resign now; if he wants to leave early, he should do so; if inflation data is low, rates should be lowered, calling for an internal review of the Federal Reserve, which might become one of Powell's legacies. Tariff progress: Trump stated: the U.S. has reached an agreement with Japan, with Japan to pay 15% in equivalent tariffs to the U.S. and invest $550 billion in the U.S.; this agreement will create thousands of jobs, and Japan will open its national trade. After the U.S.-Japan agreement, Trump shifted focus to the European Union, with the deadline for a 30% tariff approaching on the 1st of next month, raising hopes that a deal may also be reached with the EU. Goldman Sachs expects: the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates next week and begin to cut rates in the remaining three meetings, with the slowing job market exerting pressure; consumer spending has stagnated for six consecutive months, a situation that is extremely rare outside of a U.S. economic recession. Goldman Sachs also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates two more times in early 2026. CZ stated: although uncertain about the accuracy of the altcoin season index, it is indeed rising, and the FOMC season is approaching. Currently, the altcoin season index is 55, showing a significant rise from the low of 12 in April this year. DWF Labs Executive Partner Andrei Grachev stated: the crypto altcoin season has just begun, and Nasdaq-listed companies are also about to welcome the altcoin season.
The discussion over Powell's retention has intensified, with a false resignation letter from Powell circulating in the media on Tuesday. If Powell resigns, Trump will appoint a "super dove" to replace him, dedicated to lowering interest rates. Powell did not comment on the economic or monetary policy outlook during his speech on Tuesday. Meanwhile, analysts are increasingly discussing the altcoin season, with analysts including CZ leaning towards the view that an ETH-led altcoin season is approaching or already underway. Following the passage of the U.S. crypto bill (GENIUS Act), which helps Wall Street enter, it may have just begun. If tariffs do not present issues in the near future (next Friday), a bull market may be slowly arriving, with attention needed on the Fed's interest rate meeting next Wednesday; if the Fed is hawkish, it will add resistance to the bull market; if the Fed is dovish, it will provide support for the bull market. The Fed's past style has been dovish, and Trump has been frequently urging for rate cuts recently. The path for rate cuts in the second half of the year is becoming clearer, and rate cuts are inevitable. Hopefully, this bull market will proceed smoothly.
