When political games collide with monetary policy, the market is like a tightrope-walking acrobat—any misstep can lead to chaos!
#特朗普 #鲍威尔
Recently, Trump has fired again, directly naming Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, saying the headquarters renovation has exceeded budget and that he should be held accountable, even suggesting his removal (case in point: just like in 2020 when Trump threatened to replace Powell). Now, the market is most worried not about interest rate hikes or cuts, but whether the Federal Reserve can withstand political pressure to maintain its independence—just like a football referee who gets yelled at by the team owner will hesitate the next time they blow the whistle.
[Personal Opinion]
1️⃣ Why are yields still high? The fundamental reason is that the market has discovered that the Federal Reserve might be 'tough on the outside but soft on the inside': on one hand, they say they want to see the data, while on the other, the White House is pressuring for rate cuts. This split expectation has directly pushed up government bond yields;
2️⃣ The crypto circle should be wary of 'black swans': after Trump criticized the Federal Reserve in 2018, BTC plummeted 12% in a single day. Now, with the election year bringing more political theatrics, volatility may be even more extreme;
3️⃣ The real risk lies in 'collapse of trust'—if investors feel that the Federal Reserve has turned into a political ATM, then U.S. debt, the 'anchor for global asset pricing', will loosen, and all risk assets will need to be repriced.
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(I am Brother Lei from the crypto circle, specializing in various market disputes. If you like it, I'll directly provide real trading strategies after 500 likes!)
