🔥 CPI Data Ignites the Crypto Market! The Fed's September Rate Cut is Uncertain, After BTC's Huge Shock, Is it a Trap or an Opportunity?
📉 1. CPI Data Interpretation: The Ghost of Inflation Returns
June CPI year-on-year 2.7%, hitting a new 4-month high, core inflation stubbornly remains at 2.9%.
Revealing the Push Factor:
Trump's Tariff Effects Fermenting: Prices of goods like furniture and automobiles are accelerating upward, and companies are forced to pass on costs after depleting inventories.
High Energy and Service Costs: Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up crude oil prices, and service industry inflation has only slightly retreated.
Market Expectations Change Dramatically: The probability of a rate cut in September plummeted from 80% to 54%-58%, and the dollar index surged 2.1% breaking 98.5.
💣 2. The Fed's 'Tightrope Dilemma': Changes in Rate Cut Path
Policy Dilemma:
Premature Rate Cut → Inflation Out of Control (Dallas Fed President Logan warns: "It could lead to deeper economic trauma").
Over-tightening → Employment Market Damaged (If the opportunity is missed, subsequent cuts may be forced to be more aggressive).
Key Signals:
July 30 FOMC Meeting: If core CPI exceeds 5% for three consecutive months, a rate hike cannot be ruled out.
⚡ 3. The Contrasting Worlds of Cryptocurrency: BTC Plummets vs ETH Surges
Bitcoin's Huge Shock:
After the CPI announcement, it crashed from $123,000 to $115,700, with $550 million liquidated in 24 hours.
Ethereum Shines Alone:
Against the trend, it broke through $3,140, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new 4-month high (0.0266), with daily inflows exceeding $1 billion.
🚀 4. Investor Strategy: How to Hedge Against the 'Stagflation Storm'?
Short-term Defense:
Closely monitor PPI data + Fed speeches; if the resistance at $119,250 is breached, BTC may regain upward momentum.
Risk-averse allocation of stablecoins + gold to guard against risks of spillover from US stock market corrections.
Long-term Ambush:
Bargain Hunting Signals Emerge: The stock of BTC on exchanges has dropped to a historical low of 2.12 million coins, and the number of whale addresses holding over a thousand coins has reached a peak for the year.
Dual Track Layout:
RWA Leaders (Ondo, Securitize): Benefit from the influx of institutional funds with a 58.4% share in Ethereum.
Undervalued Public Chains (SEI, SUI): BTC's sideways period may trigger a rebound.
💎 Ultimate Conclusion
The resurgence of inflation is by no means the end of a bull market! The current volatility is merely the market's knee-jerk reaction to the 'delay in rate cuts', while on-chain data and ETF inflows (totaling over $52 billion) have paved the way for a long bull run.
👉 What do you think? Should we bargain hunt or exit in the CPI storm? Clash in the comments section!
