#山寨季何时到来？
🌟 “Old coins awaken, is the countdown to Altseason starting?”
📈 Current signal: Mini altcoin season has begun to show its edge
Leading old coins: After Bitcoin broke the new high of $123,000, capital rotation accelerated!
Stellar (XLM) surged 82% in 7 days, followed by ADA (+30%), XRP (+29%), and DOGE (+18%).
New public chains SEI and ENA saw weekly increases of over 30%, with institutions and retail investors entering simultaneously.
Historical experience: A collective explosion of old coins often indicates a precursor to retail investor inflows, signaling rising risk appetite.
Key indicators warming up:
The altcoin season index rose from 15 on June 22 to 36 on July 16 (threshold needs to be ≥75); although it hasn't met the standard, the upward trend is significant.
TOTAL3 index (total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC/ETH) has entered the “Banana Zone 2.0”, may face explosive breakthroughs after consolidation.
⏳ When will Altseason fully start? Three major catalysts
Liquidity gate: Interest rate cuts and ETFs
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: LD Capital founder predicts that if rate cuts occur in August-September, liquidity outflows will ignite the altcoin season.
Altcoin ETF wave: Over 70 spot ETFs are queued for approval (SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc.), the SEC plans to push for universal listing standards, and may batch release in Q4, attracting tens of billions in institutional funds.
Bitcoin's dominance loosening:
If BTC's proportion falls below 60% (currently about 64%), a historic rotation will be triggered.
Analyst Satori found: When BTC is stable/slowly rising, its share declines, which is a precursor to altcoin season (verified in 2017 and 2021).
Narrative-driven fundamentals:
New use cases such as AI + blockchain, RWA tokenization, GameFi support value, not purely speculative.
Ethereum L2 technology breakthroughs reduce transaction costs, benefiting altcoins within the ecosystem.
🚀 Strategy advice: Ambush high-potential tracks
Public chain infrastructure: High-performance L1s like SEI, SUI, HBAR are heavily invested by Arthur Hayes, with spot gains surpassing BTC.
Undervalued old coins: XLM, ADA, etc., have undergone multiple bull and bear cycles, with technological upgrades + ecological recovery forming a double boost.
Hedging configuration: Retain 20% BTC position to guard against volatility, and diversify 80% into altcoin combinations.
💎 Conclusion: Although Altseason has not officially met the standards, the breakthrough in the “Banana Zone” is imminent! Interest rate cuts, ETFs, and technological narratives are all firing simultaneously; August-September may be a key window.
⚠️ Beware of risks: US tariff policies (TACO Act) and leverage liquidation waves may disrupt the rhythm, strictly control positions!
