"There are no winners in a trade war, but financial markets will always bet on the losers in advance— the 'tariff shock' to eurozone GDP may just be the beginning."
#关税大战 #关税大限
"Is the 'August 1 deadline' real or fake?"
The EU and the US are like two quarreling tycoons, threatening to smash each other's businesses (by imposing tariffs). If no agreement is reached before August 1, the EU's first wave of retaliation will be: 'If you raise my steel tariffs, I will raise your jeans and whiskey.'
But don't panic! Such 'deadlines' often play tricks and could be delayed until after the US elections (politicians love to play the 'delay tactic').
Impact on GDP: painful, but not fatal
If both sides impose a 20% tariff, the eurozone's GDP will grow 0.4% less next year (equivalent to Germany selling 50,000 fewer BMWs).
Worst-case scenario (30% tariff): GDP cut by another 0.6% in 2026, equivalent to French farmers losing a whole year's worth of wine exports.
Personal opinion: short-term negative for the euro, but long-term pressures the EU to 'be self-reliant' (e.g., accelerating new energy and chip independence).
How do the cryptocurrency and stock markets correlate?
Case reference: During the 2018 China-US trade war, Bitcoin was once treated as a 'safe-haven asset' and rose by 20%, while euro-denominated assets (like the German DAX index) fell for 3 consecutive months.
This may repeat: if the EU retaliates, funds may briefly flee to gold and BTC, but eurozone stocks (especially export companies) should be cautious.
"If you have euro assets, remember to fasten your seatbelt before August 1st— but smarter players are already eyeing the new opportunities hidden in the EU's 'second set of countermeasures.'
I am Brother Lei from the cryptocurrency circle, follow me to view the toughest finance with the wildest methods. 💥
