🔴 Donald Trump on the Russian economy

Trump has taken an ambiguous and pragmatic stance regarding Russia. He has said on several occasions:

• Russia is economically strong “despite the sanctions”: he has acknowledged that Russia has managed to keep its economy afloat, mainly due to energy trade with countries like China and India.

• Criticism of poorly managed sanctions: Trump has suggested that the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe have had negative side effects for the West (such as energy inflation) and have not significantly weakened the Kremlin.

• Putin as a “strong player”: although controversial, Trump has said that Putin “knows how to play the game,” which is interpreted as an indirect criticism of how the West has handled economic geopolitics.

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💹 Impact for me as a professional trader

1. Energy markets

• Russia is a major exporter of gas and oil. Any comments from Trump that affect the geopolitical narrative can impact crude prices (WTI, Brent).

• Strategy: I trade energy futures more cautiously if Trump makes statements about Russia and sanctions.

2. Geopolitical tensions = volatility

• If Trump rises in the polls or shows signs of rapprochement with Russia, markets may anticipate a change in international policy, affecting bonds, gold, and the dollar.

• Strategy: I position myself more defensively in safe-haven assets like gold or the Swiss franc if tensions increase, or if a shift towards Russia is anticipated.

3. Cryptocurrency market

• Sanctions against Russia have driven the use of crypto assets to evade restrictions. If Trump appears more “friendly” towards Russia, it could ease pressure and affect the narrative of BTC as a safe haven.

• Strategy: I adjust my crypto portfolio based on the global narrative regarding sanctions and capital control

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