$BTC $ETH CPI data has been released, is the trend set? Don't rush, the big moves are still waiting for 9:30 when the US stock market opens, and the early morning, this is when the storm arrives!
This value is actually quite interesting, just perfectly aligning with expectations, neutral leaning dovish. Interestingly, although the CPI met expectations, the core CPI year-on-year at 3.2% exceeded expectations, which explains why ETH did not immediately surge but only reached the 3013 position.
Data interpretation:
Positive: Overall CPI meets expectations → *September rate cut probability rises from 68% to 72% according to interest rate futures data.
Negative: Core CPI exceeds expectations → The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds by 0.4%.
2. Short-term ETH trend forecast:
CPI did not exceed expectations, ETH is likely to fluctuate in the 2930-3050 range, waiting for guidance from the Federal Reserve's speech.
If the US stock market opens with a big rise, with NASDAQ futures currently up 0.8%, ETH will test the 3080 resistance.
If it breaks down, unless a high core CPI triggers hawkish concerns, it may retest 2900.
Next phase catalysts:
1. 22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman speaks dovishly, hinting at a rate cut in September, ETH hits 3150.
The hawkish emphasizes stubborn inflation, ETH retests 2900.
2. US stock market opens, if tech stocks rise significantly (Tesla, NVDA leading), it will drive ETH to break through 3050.
Tonight's focus is on the Federal Reserve's speech; if dovish signals are released, it's time to change strategies. I'm not in a hurry; after 11:30 is my main stage. Friends who are in cash and interested can follow my strategy. The trend orders have already been set up; just follow my points! 🔝