Real-time analysis of BTC/ETH on July 15
Recent market overview
Capital trends: BTC surged to $123,300 yesterday before quickly pulling back, with a maximum 24-hour retracement of nearly 6000 points. ETH briefly stood at $3,033, then fell in sync.
Rhythm structure: The market structure has shown obvious reversal signals, with the bears making a strong comeback, and the expected turning point has officially appeared.
Strategy direction: The high short strategy has been perfectly realized, and Old Vine still recommends continuing with high shorts, not suggesting low buys or bottom fishing. Tonight's CPI is the key to confirming the turning point.
Market sentiment & liquidation data
Review of yesterday's research report & realization status
Old Vine clearly reminded yesterday: 'Only do high shorts, don’t do low buys,' and warned that 'the market will fluctuate sharply before CPI,' which was perfectly validated today.
Starting from Saturday, it was predicted that the market would experience a turning point on Sunday or Tuesday, and today is Tuesday. BTC peaked at a high of $6000 before retreating, confirming the turning point.
ETH's support was accurately hit yesterday; Old Vine gave the first support at $2930, and today the market just hit the level before bouncing back, validating the effectiveness of the support.
Key analysis of BTC's main market
Support level:
1st Support: 114000 (daily previous high support)
2nd Support: 112300 (weekly structural support)
Resistance level:
1st Resistance: 118800 (structural pressure after a pullback)
2nd Resistance: 121000 (previous platform high before breaking)
Strategy suggestions (BTC):
Continue with high shorts; low buying and bottom fishing are not recommended. A short-term rebound to around 118,800 can be attempted for high shorts; if tonight's CPI is bullish, take profits on shorts; if CPI is bearish, the first target will be directly looking down at the $103,000 area (where bulls concentrate their stop-loss points).
Analysis and reminders on ETH's secondary market
Support level:
1st Support: 2930 (strategy hit yesterday)
2nd Support: 2870 (daily level structural support)
Resistance level:
1st Resistance: 3080 (platform structural pressure)
2nd Resistance: 3150 (short-term bear attack zone)
Strategy suggestions (ETH)
Old Vine suggests not to make ETH the main attack direction for the time being.
ETH's movement is too strong, forming a counter-structure with the main coin, limiting the upward space; it's difficult to make a profit from long positions, and it can be dragged down by BTC at any time.
Shorting is also not appropriate; the structure is too rigid, making it easy for price recovery to reverse and explode short positions. Focusing on the main coin is more cost-effective.
Altcoin sector suggestions
Currently, altcoins have entered a period of oscillation and pullback, and the logic for price recovery has nearly exhausted.
It is not recommended to heavily invest in non-strong structured coins; short-term high short opportunities are the main focus.
Key policies and news
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the US June CPI will be announced, determining the overall trend direction for late July.
▸ If CPI is below expectations: Short-term bullish, the market will rebound quickly, and short positions must take profits in time.
▸ If CPI is above expectations: Liquidity concerns will intensify, and BTC's first target will look down at $103,000.
The US Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal has been passed, and BTC may gradually increase its holdings in the future, with no short-term selling pressure expected, but it is not a short-term positive.
Summary
Old Vine's previous hint of 'Tuesday turning point' was successfully realized, with BTC retreating nearly 6000 points from its high.
Yesterday's high short strategy was a complete victory, with no opportunities for low buys; the structure was clear.
Tonight's CPI is a key node; prioritize locking in profits and wait for the data to land before making a second layout.
Operational rhythm: Focus on high shorts, do not chase highs, control positions well, and proceed steadily.
Old Vine reminds: Don't linger after tonight, leave opportunities. The high short strategy remains the king's way; don't let overnight market movements harvest floating profits.
