Recent Market Overview
The CPI annual rate data for June released last night was 2.7%, which is exactly in line with market expectations and is a "small positive in line with expectations" in the short term. However, I have seen that the market has not broken through in large volume, indicating that the current market has fully priced in the logic of inflation relief, and the structure is more like a "news stress test".
At the same time, the monitoring data on the ETH chain shows that multiple large addresses have transferred more than 24,000 ETH to the exchange, but the market has not fluctuated violently, which means that large investors are still in a wait-and-see state and are more inclined to wait for the "end of tariff extension" on August 1, which is a major event with a real turning point. Overall judgment: The short-term high-level needle-piercing and oscillating pattern may continue. Green bubble pao skirt: Goodboy8980
Market sentiment and liquidation data
Liquidation data: 105,778 people were liquidated in 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of 349 million US dollars
Liquidation structure: The cumulative long liquidation in 30 days reached 19.6 billion dollars, and the short liquidation was only 5.56 billion dollars. The long concentration was serious, and we need to be vigilant against the secondary harvest.
BTC trend analysis (4-hour chart)
Support Levels:
First support: 116300 (24EMA support + short-term stabilization platform), I will observe whether it forms a bottom divergence here
Second support: 114500–114000 (MA52 + previous wave low point), if it breaks, it is likely to test the lower edge of the channel
Resistance:
The first resistance: 118800–119500 (previous high concentration area + BOLL middle track suppression), a touchstone for short-term bulls
Second resistance: 121000 (starting point of the previous sharp drop), a large-volume breakthrough is required to resume the main rise
Operation suggestions BTC:
I suggest maintaining the "oscillation and short" operation rhythm:
If it rebounds to the 118,800–119,500 range, you can try shorting with a stop loss at 121,000
If it falls back to around 116300, watch for bargain hunting opportunities. If it breaks, wait for the 114000 area to stop falling and stabilize.
The current high-level stagflation structure makes it uneconomical to chase more
ETH trend structure (4-hour chart)
Support level below:
First support: 3,080–3,050 (short-term upper edge of the box), I will pay attention to whether the retracement is confirmed to be effective
Second support: 2920–2950 (previous platform top + moving average support), if it does not break after a pullback, the main rise will continue
Upper resistance level:
The first resistance: 3170 (the current stage high point) is the threshold for further bullish volume
Second resistance: 3250 (macro historical locked-in area), pay attention to the risk of falling back after reaching it
Operation suggestions ETH:
ETH strongly breaks through the box and maintains a bullish mindset:
If the price falls back to 3050-3080 and does not break, you can buy at a low price with a small position, and the target is 3170-3250
If the price repeatedly stagnates around 3170, you can try shorting with a small position and move the stop loss above 3260
Copycat section logic and recommendations
Pay more attention to the currencies in the AI sector in the near future. Trump announced a $70 billion investment plan in artificial intelligence and energy at a meeting yesterday. The AI sector may be hot in the near future.
Pay more attention to the meme sector. After the correction of Yamato yesterday, the two cakes rebounded and broke new highs. The market sentiment is constantly hyped. The meme sector is the vanguard of every market rebound. In addition, the meme sector also emphasizes that the strong will always be strong. Some project parties who know how to make trouble will always make trouble. Lao Teng gives a few examples here: FLOKI, BONK, WIF
It is important to remind you that the current rebound in the market is only a small-cycle rebound as the second cake makes up for the rise. We should only trade in small-cycle waves. Now is not the stage for large-scale all-in, so stay vigilant.
Summary and operational suggestions
CPI was in line with expectations but did not trigger a breakthrough. The short-term market was under pressure and fluctuated. The market is waiting for the tariff event to be implemented on August 1.
Large ETH transfers did not have a substantial impact on prices, indicating that the main force is still waiting for structural confirmation
It is recommended to combine the dual strategies of "high-altitude trial and error + low-buy trial" to avoid chasing high prices and control risks.
The copycat sector is still driven by individual narratives, so it is not advisable to bet heavily on breakthroughs
Lao Teng suggests: During the high-level shock and consolidation period, cautious sentiment is prioritized. The real opportunities are often hidden in the direction switching window after the news comes out, rather than the current "fuzzy range".
