Basically, new highs are being reached every couple of days, but the current Bitcoin rise isn’t due to high buying interest, but rather because no one is willing to sell. In simple terms, the circulating supply is dwindling, and the number of sellers is decreasing, so for now, let’s not think about a big drop.
Look at the exchange traffic data from the past year; Bitcoin withdrawals are increasing, and the amount left on exchanges is minimal. Because those who really want to sell are almost nonexistent, even if there’s some volatility, it won’t create big waves unless systemic risks emerge.
That being said, we can still expect some movement this week. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all scheduled, especially CPI, which the market expects to be quite disappointing. If the data is weaker than expected, the anticipation for a rate cut in September might evaporate.
There will definitely be some short-term fluctuations, but it’s just a matter of a few days; July and August still have crucial data ahead, and it might bounce back. One more thing to note is that the weekend volatility is a bit strange.
From 8 AM to 6 PM, treat it as the Asian session, and in the evening as the American session, and you’ll notice something interesting. The Asian session rises steadily, while the American session crashes. Isn’t this the familiar taste of 2023? Some are buying, while Coinbase is selling.
Back to the market, many people automatically assume that prices will drop when they see them high. But why don’t you think about last October when it went from 70K to 100K? Did it pull back at 80K? Did it pull back at 90K? No! At most, it dipped a little to 88666 and then shot straight to 100K!
The current trend is exactly like the wave from last year, from 70K to 110K. The big trend is upward, and the acceleration hasn’t even started yet, and you’re shorting? You must be crazy.
Although there’s nothing wrong with Bitcoin, we need to be cautious about altcoins. Right now, altcoins rely on sentiment and liquidity, but the problem is that neither is present. If there is a real pullback, it will be altcoins that crash first, not Bitcoin.
The current structure still belongs to the middle stage of a bullish trend, with a very stable continuation pattern. Technically, it resembles the weekly lines from February and November 2024, both showing half of the trend, not a top. However, the trading volume hasn’t kept up, and the spot premium is somewhat lacking.
So if we surge to the weekly overbought line around 134431 and the momentum doesn't keep up, it could really be a top. But as long as we don’t break below 102394, the bull market logic is still intact. Left-side predictions are about guessing long or short, while right-side trading makes more sense.
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