July 10 BTC/ETH Market Insights Analysis

The market has entered a violent fluctuation after a sharp rise, driven by the 'dual news' of Trump extending the 90-day tariff buffer to August 1 and the collapse of interest rate cut expectations. BTC quickly retreated after rising to 112036, while ETH effectively broke through the 2800 mark and continued to rise. Short-term volume switches frequently, retail investor sentiment is extreme; large funds are looking for opportunities during the fluctuation. The operation still needs to adhere to the 'high sell low buy + strict stop loss' strategy, pay attention to the rhythm, and avoid blindly chasing rises.

Market Sentiment:
The current greed/fear index has risen to 72, in a clear 'greed' range, indicating that current market sentiment is significantly hot, but the volume has not sustained the upward attack.

In the past 24 hours, the number of liquidated people: 111,884; total liquidation amount: 524 million dollars. I believe this data reflects the high risk of chasing highs.

Review of Overall Market

Trump has once again extended the tariff buffer to August 1, temporarily easing the bearish pressure from early July; however, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have significantly cooled, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising to 80%. Under this background, BTC retreated after briefly testing the 112036 high near 111062 dollars, while ETH completed the breakthrough at the 2800 dollar mark and rose to around 2783 dollars. The overall trend shows a 'sharp rise followed by consolidation to form a top' pattern, with funds still unclear on direction, ensuring to follow the structure for trading.

Lower Day Support Level:

First Support: 110,200 (Previous High Dense Zone), confirming the rebound is a short-term buying opportunity.

Second Support: 108,700–109,000 (Midline of Channel + EMA Resonance), if broken, will accelerate the decline.

Upper Day Resistance Level:

First Resistance: 112,000–112,400 (High Platform Top), I will look for high short positions in this range.

Second Resistance: 114,000 (Short-term Liquidation Dense Zone), only a breakthrough confirms the continuation of bullish trend.

Strategy Suggestions (BTC):

I suggest focusing on high shorts during the day, placing shorts when the price retraces to 112000–112400, with stop losses set above 114000; if it falls to the 110200 or 109000 range, light buying can be done with volume confirmation, do not chase the bottom.

Comparison of ETH and BTC Trends Structure


Lower Day Support Level:

First Support: 2700–2650 (Previous Box Top Rebound), maintaining this level is the starting point for a slight bullish rebound.

Second Support: 2600 (Moving Average / EMA Support), beware of a quick drop after breaking

Upper Day Resistance Level:

First Resistance: 2820–2,870 (Short-term High), I will seek high short positions here.

Second Resistance: 2900 (Historical Liquidation Zone), confirmation of stability required for higher targets

Strategy Suggestions (ETH):

If it retraces to the 2820–2865 range, I will make small staggered shorts, with stop losses set above 2900; if it falls back to the 2700–2650 range, light buying can be done, with stop losses slightly below 2650, overall maintaining a consolidation mindset.


Focus on Altcoin Sector

DOGE: As mentioned yesterday, as long as BTC remains at a high level, it will still see a rebound.

TIA: Maintain the 1.50 support, currently remains at the bottom consolidation position, with significant upward space, the modularization of blockchain will be re-speculated, it is a coin that is more technical than marketing.

POL (formerly MATIC): On-chain upgrade expectations are supportive, I will focus on promoting POL's 'upgrade + airdrop' event in the community, and continue to fork and upgrade in the ecosystem in the short term.

Other potentials: SOL, LINK, INJ, etc., listed as short-term outbreak candidates, I will follow up at the right time.

Yesterday, it was clearly anticipated that the overall altcoin would see a rebound today, and sure enough, DOGE, TIA, and POL shared yesterday all had nearly an 8% rise today, waiting for further rebounds, focusing on AI, MEME, and RWA sectors.


Summary

  1. The extension of the tariff buffer + the failure of interest rate cut expectations has created a pattern of 'sharp rise followed by consolidation': the market has entered a consolidation phase after a sharp rise, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. I still prioritize high shorts, with low buys as a supplement.

  2. The high greed index and over 500 million dollars in liquidation highlight the risks, do not chase highs;

  3. Core Operation: Adhere to 'high sell low buy + strict stop loss', enter the market after confirming the structure, and avoid chasing rises or bottoms;

  4. Closely monitor the end of the tariff buffer period on August 1 and the progress of trade negotiations, as there may be directional breakthroughs at that time;

  5. Market Style: Retail investors are high, institutions are on the sidelines. The best strategy is to 'wait for the wind to rise, do not get caught in the restlessness'. Overall strategy: strict stop loss, staggered orders, waiting for structural confirmation before entering the market—missing out is more prudent than making a wrong move.