Internal message: The national-level promotion of the "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize social resource allocation, enhance production efficiency, and improve people's livelihood, which will have structural impacts on various sectors in the stock market. Below are the main sectors expected to benefit along with logical analysis:
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### **1. Large Consumption Sector (Core Beneficiary)**
- **Logic**: The anti-involution policy will release residents' consumption potential by reducing ineffective overtime, safeguarding vacation rights, and increasing workers' income, thus promoting consumption upgrades.
- **Sub-Sectors**:
- **Discretionary Consumption**: Snacks (e.g., Liangpin Shop), travel (Ctrip, China Youth Travel), film and entertainment (Wanda Film), sports industry, etc., benefiting from increased leisure time and improved willingness to consume.
- **Essential Consumption**: Home appliances (Midea, Haier), home furnishings (Kuka Home), maternal and child products, etc., as demand rises due to improved income expectations.
- **High-End Consumption**: Premium liquor (Kweichow Moutai), luxury goods, etc., benefiting from the consumption capacity release of the middle to high-income groups.
(Comment: It is not advisable to increase positions in real estate-related industries; Moutai is equivalent to Bitcoin, with Moutai's volatility being ten times that of Bitcoin)
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### **2. Healthcare (Long-Term Positive)**
- **Logic**: Policies may increase investments in medical resources, alleviating medical involution (e.g., doctor overwork, patient queues), while rising health awareness drives demand.
- **Sub-Sectors**:
- **Medical Services**: Private hospitals (Aier Eye Hospital), health checkup organizations (Meinian Health), etc., benefiting from the improvement in the medical environment.
- **Rehabilitation Medical Care**: Chronic disease management demand grows under aging and anti-involution (e.g., Yuyue Medical).
- **Mental Health**: Demand for psychological counseling and psychiatric medications may rise (e.g., Kangning Hospital).
(Comment: Growth in pensions is beneficial for aging populations)
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### **3. Technology and High-End Manufacturing (Divergent Impact)**
- **Logic**: Anti-involution forces companies to shift from "inefficient overtime" to "technological innovation", with policies likely to tilt resources in support of high-value-added industries.
- **Sub-Sectors**:
- **Industrial Automation** (Estun, Inovance Technology): Reducing reliance on labor and improving production efficiency.
- **Semiconductors/High-End Equipment**: Policies support domestic substitution to avoid low-end competition.
- **Enterprise Service Software** (Yonyou Network): Increased demand for digital cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.
(Comment: The loss-making Cambrian is comparable to domestic Nvidia; ironically, it cannot be bought now that it is profitable)
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### **4. Vocational Education and Human Resource Services**
- **Logic**: Anti-involution requires improving labor skills rather than extending working hours, leading to increased demand for vocational training; flexible employment models may become more prevalent.
- **Related Stocks**: Zhonggong Education, Kelly Services (leading flexible employment provider).
--- (Comment: Previous policies have harmed the education and training sector; watch for policy direction)
### **5. New Energy and Carbon Neutrality**
- **Logic**: Policies may redirect excess capacity from involutionary industries towards the green economy, with sustained policy support for wind and solar power, energy storage, and related fields.
- **Related Stocks**: Contemporary Amperex Technology, LONGi Green Energy, Three Gorges Energy, etc.
--- (Comment: The photovoltaic industry is indeed facing serious involution, and expectations of anti-involution have already been reflected in the continuous surge of polysilicon futures prices, with some experts already positioning ahead)
### **6. Financial Sector (Indirectly Positive)**
- **Logic**: Improved resident income enhances demand for insurance (China Ping An) and wealth management (East Money); banks (China Merchants Bank) see improvement in asset quality.
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### **Sectors to Avoid**
- **Traditional Labor-Intensive Industries**: Low-end manufacturing industries (such as some textile and electronics OEMs) that rely on overtime to exploit labor may face rising costs.
- **Ineffective Competition Industries**: Such as low-end generic drugs and homogenized building materials where involution is severe.
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### **Key Points for Policy Implementation**
- **Specific Measures**: If work hour limits, minimum wage increases, tax incentives (such as consumption vouchers), etc., are introduced, this will reinforce the above logic.
- **Implementation Strength**: Differences in local policy implementation may lead to sector performance divergence.
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### **Summary**
The core of the anti-involution policy is "improving quality and efficiency", with the benefiting sectors concentrated in areas that can enhance overall social well-being and productivity. In the short term, focus on the recovery of consumption and healthcare, while in the long term, favor technological transformation and green economy. Investors need to adjust their layouts dynamically in accordance with the pace of policy detail releases.
