#BTC再创新高 , The Underlying Logic of Bitcoin's Surge: From 'Speculative Product' to 'Macro Asset' Transformation

1. The 'Asymmetric Relationship' Between Federal Reserve Policy and the Crypto Market

Traditional analytical frameworks suggest that interest rate hikes are detrimental to Bitcoin, while rate cuts are beneficial. However, the reality in 2025 is that Bitcoin's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy is declining, and its response to 'real interest rates' and 'global liquidity' is more direct.

For example, after the release of the minutes early this morning, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose only 2 basis points to 4.52%, while Bitcoin surged 3%—indicating that the market is more focused on the 'reduction of policy uncertainty' itself rather than the direction of interest rates.

In comparison to December 2024: at that time, the Federal Reserve hinted at slowing the pace of rate cuts, yet Bitcoin preemptively entered a bull market a month earlier due to expectations of a rebound in global M2 growth hitting bottom.

2. 'Capital Reallocation' Under the Tariff War

Trump's tariff policy is reshaping global capital flows:

Emerging market capital flight: Stock markets in countries like Brazil and Mexico collectively fell over 2% overnight, while Bitcoin trading volume in Latin America surged 40%—local investors are using cryptocurrency to hedge against the risk of currency devaluation.

Institutional funds' 'Upgraded Hedging': BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) saw a net inflow of $120 million yesterday, while gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $380 million. This confirms our assessment: under expectations of 'stagflation', Bitcoin is replacing gold as the preferred inflation-hedging asset for institutions.