July 10 BTC/ETH analysis of key points
The market has entered a sharp fluctuation after a rapid rise under the influence of the 'dual news' of Trump extending the 90-day tariff buffer to August 1 and the interest rate cut expectations collapsing. BTC quickly retreated after soaring to 112036, while ETH effectively broke through the 2,800 mark and continued to rise. Short-term volume switches frequently, retail sentiment is extreme; large funds are looking for opportunities amid the fluctuations. The operation still needs to adhere to the strategy of 'selling high and buying low + strict stop-loss', paying attention to the rhythm, and not blindly chasing high prices.
Market sentiment:
The current greed/fear index has risen to 72, clearly in the 'greed' range, indicating that the current market sentiment is obviously overheated, but the volume has not sustained an upward attack.
Number of liquidations in the past 24 hours: 111,884 people; total liquidation amount: 524 million USD, I believe this data reflects the high risk of chasing high prices
Review of the overall market
Trump has once again extended the tariff buffer to August 1, temporarily easing the negative pressure from early July; however, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for the end of the year have significantly cooled, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising to 80%. Under this background, BTC once tested the high point of 112036 USD after rising near 111062 USD before retracting, while ETH completed a breakthrough at around 2800 USD and rose to about 2783 USD. The overall trend shows a 'rapid rise followed by fluctuation and topping' situation, with funds yet to have a clear direction, and it is essential to follow the structure for trading.
Intraday support level below:
First support: 110,200 (previous high dense area), a pullback confirmation will provide a short-term buying opportunity
Second support: 108,700–109,000 (midline of the channel + EMA resonance), if broken, will accelerate the decline
Intraday resistance level above:
First resistance: 112,000–112,400 (high platform top), I will look for short positions in this range
Second resistance: 114,000 (short-term liquidation dense area), a breakthrough confirms the continuation of the bulls
Strategy suggestion (BTC):
I suggest focusing on short positions for the day, placing short orders when the price pulls back to 112000–112400, with a stop-loss above 114000; if it falls to the 110200 or 109000 range, light buying can be considered with volume cooperation, without chasing the bottom.
Comparison of ETH's second coin trend structure
Intraday support level below:
First support: 2700–2650 (pullback to the top of the previous range), holding this is the starting point for a slight bullish rebound
Second support: 2600 (moving average/EMA support), beware of rapid dips after breaking
Intraday resistance level above:
First resistance: 2820–2,870 (short-term high), I will look for short positions here
Second resistance: 2900 (historical liquidation area), only confirmed if it stabilizes
Strategy suggestion (ETH):
If it rebounds to the 2820–2865 range, I will take small positions in batches to short, with a stop-loss above 2900; if it pulls back to the 2700–2650 range, light buying can be considered, with a stop-loss slightly below 2650, maintaining an overall fluctuation mindset.
Focus on altcoin sector
DOGE: As mentioned yesterday, as long as the second coin is at a high, it will continue to rise
TIA: Hold the support at 1.50, currently in a bottoming phase, with high upward potential; the modularization of blockchain will be speculated again, it's a coin where technology outweighs marketing
POL (formerly MATIC): On-chain upgrade expectations assist, I will prominently promote POL 'upgrade + airdrop' events in the community, with continuous forks and upgrades in the ecosystem in the short term
Other potentials: SOL, LINK, INJ, etc., listed as short-term explosion candidates, I will follow up at the right time
Yesterday, I clearly anticipated today's overall altcoin rally, and sure enough, the DOGE, TIA, and POL shared yesterday all had nearly 8% surges today, waiting for further gains, with a focus on AI, MEME, and RWA sectors.
Summary
Tariff buffer extension + interest rate cut expectations collapse have shaped the 'rapid rise followed by fluctuation' pattern: the market has entered a fluctuation after a rapid rise, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment; I still prioritize short positions, with low buying as a supplement;
High greed index and over 500 million USD in liquidations highlight the risk, do not chase high prices;
Core operation: adhere to 'selling high and buying low + strict stop-loss', enter the market after structural confirmation, do not chase high or low prices;
Closely monitor the end of the tariff buffer period on August 1 and the progress of trade negotiations, which may lead to a directional breakthrough;
Market style: retail surge, institutional wait-and-see, the best strategy is 'wait for the wind to rise, do not get caught in the turmoil'. Overall strategy: strict stop-loss, staggered orders, wait for structural confirmation before entering the market - missing out is safer than making a mistake.