Bitcoin surges to a historic high, the latest market strategy analysis is here

Is this a top signal now? Can we short?

I believe: we shouldn't rush.

Although this upper shadow indicates short-term bullish exhaustion, it does not mean we should short immediately. Bears need to wait for clearer structural changes or confirmation of a rebound before considering entry.

From a sentiment perspective:

The Fear and Greed Index is at 'Greed', but the extreme funding rates are close to balance, indicating that the willingness to chase longs is not aggressive in the spot market. Many have chosen to reduce positions after the breakout rather than leverage up to chase longs. This shows that bulls are still cautious, unlike the previous bull market (like the surge after Trump’s election) which was much more frantic.

Regarding the market:

BTC broke through after a small consolidation, indicating that the technical structure is still bullish.

If you are a spot investor, after the breakout, pay attention to two key support levels:

Historical previous high position (if it falls below, it is recommended to reduce positions)

Short-term pullback support area: 1009700-1009800, this used to be the main accumulation zone.

If you want to buy on the dip, it's best to wait for a pullback to confirm that the support is valid before taking action.

Bearish viewpoint:

Bears, don’t rush. Don't jump in to short just because you see a long upper shadow.

You need to wait for: a clear reversal candlestick or a structural breakdown (for example, a failed breakout or a low being broken) before considering entry.

My subjective viewpoint:

BTC shows price-volume divergence at a high position, and the MACD momentum is also starting to decline.

If the daily line crosses down, quantitative funds may collectively reverse to short. This hasn't happened yet, but it needs special attention. Therefore, I won't chase the high with spot positions here; I will patiently wait for opportunities.

Regarding Ethereum:

Pay attention to the $2880 liquidity area for contract trading pairs. The ETH structure is still at the upper edge of the consolidation zone, do not rush to chase. If ETH can break through this head and shoulders structure with increased volume, then consider following up.

Strategy summary:

Bulls: Wait for a pullback to the 10097-10098 support area to position, if it breaks below, then stop loss.

Bears: Wait for top confirmation (like double top + structural breakdown) before acting.

Subjective bias: Historical high position + insufficient volume, cautiously bullish, consider reducing positions on high.

Final reminder: Strategies are always dynamic; objective first, subjective judgment can be wrong, but it must be logical and based on evidence. $ETH $BTC #BTC再创新高 #趋势交易策略 #美国加征关税