Many friends have left messages in the background, believing that from the perspective of Bitcoin's pattern, there is a possibility of a rise in the short term. From the current market situation, this speculation has some reasonableness: on-chain and platform liquidity is significantly insufficient, and the struggle between long and short forces in the derivatives market is becoming increasingly fierce. Various factors combined make a short-term rise not a fantastical idea.
If Bitcoin begins to rise next, we can use the divergence principle of STH-MVRV to estimate the possible prices it may reach. The effectiveness of this analytical tool has been validated by the market, based on the logic that high-level STH-MVRV divergences tend to have strong persistence and are difficult to break through previous highs.
Specifically, the recent STH-MVRV values corresponding to the two recent peaks are 1.13 and 1.18. According to the current STH-RP value, the corresponding Bitcoin prices are $112,600 and $117,500. This means that if Bitcoin rises to these two positions in the short term, it is likely to face resistance from the MVRV divergence.
Additionally, the shorter the time frame for 'short-term', the higher the accuracy of this calculation result, and I personally believe it is applicable within a week. As time goes on, due to changes in turnover costs, the calculated price may deviate, necessitating a re-adjustment of parameters for recalculation.
It should be noted that this is not a statement that Bitcoin will definitely rise to $112,600 or $117,500 in the short term, but rather to indicate that if Bitcoin attempts to reach these prices in the short term, it will face strong resistance before reaching them, making it difficult to break through easily. Please understand this analytical conclusion correctly.