On a macro level, CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' data shows that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in July is as high as 95.3%, with only a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by September, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged drops to 34.2%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 62.8%. This indicates that the market has strong expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the second half of the year, and the pace of monetary policy adjustments will directly impact market risk appetite.
In the U.S., Trump announced that tariffs will be imposed starting August 1, 2025, and the deadline will no longer be postponed. Additionally, this date has been postponed from the originally planned July 9, potentially related to the progress of trade negotiations and coordination of Federal Reserve policies. There is relatively low uncertainty regarding the EU and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement parties, with the biggest variable potentially coming from 'Dragon Brother' - who is currently not included in the list of 14 countries, and the tariff scheme is still under negotiation. Furthermore, if tariffs are implemented simultaneously with the 'Great Beautiful Bill,' it could raise inflation expectations, increase pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, thereby suppressing market risk appetite. Therefore, in the coming month, the Trump administration may focus on determining the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve to balance policy impacts and stabilize player sentiment.
The global asset management giant BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin spot ETF has recently reached a new record high in holdings. According to relevant data, the fund currently holds 700,307 Bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $75.5 billion. Compared to its holding of 698,919 Bitcoins last Thursday, an additional 1,388 Bitcoins have been added in just two trading days. Since its establishment in January 2024, IBIT's total return has reached 82.67%, and there are reports that its revenue has surpassed BlackRock's flagship product - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, highlighting the market's recognition of IBIT and Bitcoin. Currently, IBIT accounts for over 55% of the total holdings of all Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, and the continuous inflow of institutional funds provides significant support for Bitcoin.
On-chain data shows that market turnover remains sluggish, with most players still maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.
Overall, the current Bitcoin market is in a range-bound phase, with stable market structure and support levels. Data shows that there are 2.245 million Bitcoins in the range of $104,000 to $108,500, forming the first support level; while there are 1.915 million Bitcoins in the range of $93,000 to $98,000, forming the second support level. Currently, there are no signs of systemic risk, and Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. stocks; as long as U.S. stocks are stable, Bitcoin's stability will also be ensured. In the short term, the market's focus will continue to be on the details of tariff policy implementation and adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Whether Bitcoin can break through the range-bound phase will depend on the evolution of these key variables.