Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising. Will ETH break through $5000 in 2025? With the influx of ETF funds, the market seems to be brewing a historic bull market.

Federal Reserve Policy and Its Connection to Cryptocurrency

Initial jobless claims are at 233,000. On the surface, this seems negative, but it actually reveals weaknesses in the U.S. economy, which increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Officials like Waller and Daly have signaled plans to cut rates in July and implement a second cut in the fall, which is a quarter earlier than market expectations. This news has become a potential driving force for the cryptocurrency market, with many retail investors starting to adjust their positions.

Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Movements

ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract: The breakthrough at the key level of 3010 is not coincidental. The MACD has formed a golden cross, the BOLL bands are widening, and the volume surge of 320 million USDT at 3 AM shows typical characteristics of institutional accumulation, while the red circle is seen as a sign that the smart money has finished its shakeout.

BTC/USDT: The false breakout at 117500 is actually a “feint.” The main force created panic using the jobless claims data, then accumulated positions in the 116200-117000 range. Notably, while Nasdaq futures were dropping, BTC rose against the trend, suggesting that traditional capital may be quietly entering the crypto market.

Operations and Risk Warnings

Pay attention to the ETH/BTC exchange rate; a breakthrough at 0.052 may trigger a wave of cross-market arbitrage.

The 72 hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is a critical window; historical data shows that BTC has averaged an 18% increase during this period, warranting close attention.

Be wary of “buying on expectations and selling on facts.” It is recommended to set a take-profit level of 117800 for BTC and a defensive level of 2880 for ETH in advance.

Signals from On-Chain Data

While traditional analysts focus on the unemployment rate, on-chain data has released important information: whale addresses have increased their holdings by 120,000 ETH in the past six hours, USDT's over-the-counter premium has expanded to 1.5%, and CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surged by 37%.

Some believe that this rate cut cycle may replay the 2019 script—when the Federal Reserve officially cuts rates, BTC may first plummet by 15% to complete its shakeout, before starting an 11-month super bull market. Investors are already positioning themselves around 116200.

With the opportunity at hand, the Hot Nuclear team is ready, focused on uncovering market opportunities to help investors grasp potential trends. #BTC再创新高