I intentionally delayed writing my observations on ETH for a day to allow time for corrections in Monday's US stock market.
Whether Trump continues with the taco trade, the market's panic over the tariff deadline seems not to have much impact.
Looking at Bitcoin and Ethereum, aside from the continued decline in volatility, the remaining prices are relatively stable.
The implied volatility (iv) of ETH has been declining recently; the long-term iv has slightly rebounded.
The Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) remains positive, but sellers are having a tough time; the iv is too low, and new sellers are making small profits while facing increasing risks.
From my favorite gamma ex perspective, the price is currently around 2500, which is clearly a negative gamma zone, so we can expect some fluctuations this week. However, both 2400 and 2600 are positive gamma zones, so a narrow range of fluctuations is more likely.
Looking at the open interest (OI) changes, there is significant movement around 2600; is there a possibility for the price trend to break through 2600? Let's observe as we go along.
Overall, I still recommend continuing the strategy of selling within the range of 2400 to 2800.
The question is whether to set a ddh or to place long-term calendar protection?
If iv remains low, naked selling is relatively comfortable. However, we are not gods and cannot predict the future.
Setting up insurance, although the long-term iv has been declining, leading to significant wear costs for long-term protection. But as long as volatility rises, everything will come back.
Therefore, do not seek temporary gratification; naked selling is not advisable. Safety first.
As for buyers, I suggest buying some long-term options; the recent market has indeed not been friendly, and it's like using a dull knife to cut meat; time is the enemy of buyers.
Wishing everyone prosperity~