XRP finally broke its symmetrical flag formation on July 3, with the price surpassing the $2.20 region. The breakout was not explosive but occurred with moderately increasing volume, suggesting quiet accumulation.
Currently, the price of XRP is close to $2.27, facing a confluence of key resistance at $2.35.
XRP's SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) rose above 1.6 in early June 2025, indicating that wallets are realizing profits. Historically, such levels have aligned with local tops, especially when profit-taking exceeds 1.5.
But this time, the price of XRP is holding firm, even if $1.50 is still far off. This suggests strength in the market or, at the very least, strong profit absorption.
SOPR tracks whether coins moved on the blockchain are sold at a profit or loss. A value above 1 means sellers are exiting with a profit. Current levels indicate some distribution, but not enough to derail the trend.
MVRV Z-Score signals that there is still no euphoria.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score, which compares market value to realized value, remains relatively calm even after the breakout. Previously, it peaked near 6.5 during XRP's run to $3 in early 2025, but is now close to 2.0.
This indicates that XRP is not yet in the danger zone of overvaluation. An MVRV Z-Score below 3 suggests that there may still be room for upside before profit-taking becomes widespread.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score measures how much the price has deviated from the average cost of all coins. A low score means that the asset is not excessively extended compared to historical entry points for investors, signaling room to rise before reaching sentiment extremes.
HODL Waves show that long-term investors are still holding strong.
The XRP HODL Wave chart paints a picture of strong conviction among investors. Over 40% of the circulating supply has not moved in over a year, and the long-term cohort bands remain stable despite recent price movements of XRP.
This means that long-term investors are in no hurry to sell, even during bullish phases. This supports the optimistic thesis that fewer coins moving means less selling pressure at the upper resistance.
HODL Waves tracks the age of coins in wallets. When coins remain inactive, it usually signals belief in higher prices in the long term.
Active addresses spike before each rally.
Active addresses and wallets transacting in the last 24 hours surged several times in June, each time preceding a price rally. These surges in activity suggest new wallet participation, potentially from new buyers or whales of XRP rotating.
XRP price breaks out, but $2.35 is an obstacle.
A new flag formation on the daily timeline is now formed. It shows clearer support and resistance trend lines, suggesting that the breakout is technically solid.
If XRP turns $2.35 into support, the next resistance zones are at $2.48, $2.60, $2.65, and eventually $2.78. A move above $2.78 opens the way towards the psychological level of $3, which has not been tested since early 2025.
A/D line paired with volume shows capital inflow: TradingView.
However, if the breakout fails and the price drops below $2.08, the bullish structure unravels, risking a deeper decline.
Furthermore, the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line has been slowly rising since April 2025. While not aggressive, this confirms that capital inflows continue, and large investors are not aggressively unloading. This indicator weighs price movement against volume; upward trends imply accumulation even without explosive volume. A flat to upward slope supports the idea that XRP's recent breakout is not being heavily sold off.
On-chain and technical signals suggest that XRP has momentum, but the resistance at $2.35 needs to be overcome. MVRV and SOPR show that we are not in euphoria yet, while HODL Waves confirm that supply remains locked. If the price of XRP stays above $2.20 and surpasses $2.35, $2.65–$2.78 could follow quickly. Only a break below $2.08 turns the chart bearish again.
The article Can the price of XRP recover to $3? was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.