The expanded BRICS summit in Brazil unfolded without two of its most influential figures — Chinese President Xi Jlnping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their absence has raised concerns about the bloc’s cohesion at a time of mounting global and economic tensions.

Neither leader attended the summit in Rio de Janeiro nor sent a high-ranking representative to fill the void. Heads of state from other key member countries like Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia were also notably absent. While the group photo in front of Rio’s iconic Sugarloaf Mountain appeared more organized than last November’s chaotic G20 image, the lack of BRICS’ central leaders made the alliance look unfinished and fragmented.


🔹 Putin Stays Home as Russia’s War Economy Falters

As the summit unfolded, Russia’s economy — long propped up by military spending and oil revenues — is beginning to show serious cracks. Industrial production is declining, inflation is high, and the central bank has been forced to cut interest rates in an effort to soften a looming recession.

While Putin publicly downplays the situation — quoting Mark Twain to say, “reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated” — the numbers tell a harsher truth. Russia’s GDP grew by only 1.4% in Q1 2025, down from 4.5% in Q4 2024. Car sales dropped 30% year-over-year in June, and manufacturing output has plunged to a three-year low.


🔹 Sanctions and Falling Oil Revenues Hit Industry Hard

Russia’s real economy is bleeding. Agricultural machinery giant Rostselmash cut production and sent 15,000 workers on early leave due to weak demand. In Siberia, power provider Rosseti Sibir faces bankruptcy amid mounting debt and has frozen new investments.

The country’s banks are also under pressure. After the war began, the Kremlin forced major banks to issue low-interest “war loans.” Now, with skyrocketing borrowing costs, many businesses can’t repay them — and if bankruptcies start, the government may need to step in to bail them out.


🔹 Military Spending Consumes Nearly Half of the Budget

Defense and security expenditures are expected to make up 40% of Russia’s total budget in 2025 — the highest share since the Soviet Union. That’s over 6% of GDP, far higher than the 3% spent by the U.S. or 2% by Germany. While such spending temporarily boosted growth, it has since triggered uncontrollable inflation. The central bank’s 21% interest rate now stifles economic activity and borrowing.


🔹 Xi’s Absence Signals Possible Strain in the Russia-China Alliance

Despite having supported Russia with discounted oil purchases and essential exports like electronics, China’s own challenges may have forced Xi Jlnping to skip the summit. With weakening domestic demand, a real estate crisis, and declining foreign trade, Beijing’s focus may have shifted inward.

His absence — along with that of Putin — casts doubt on the long-term solidity of the China-Russia alliance within BRICS. What was once seen as a powerful counterweight to Western dominance now appears fragmented. And financial pressure on Moscow continues to mount.




#putin , #BRICS , #china , #russia , #Geopolitics

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