In Washington, seemingly unrelated events often intertwine at a deeper level, sketching a grand strategic picture. At the beginning of July, as public attention focused on the U.S. House's 'Independence Day gift' to President Trump—a massive fiscal bill dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)—a quieter but equally profound revolution was brewing on Capitol Hill: a series of legislative proposals targeting digital assets are being placed on the agenda at an unprecedented pace.
These two seemingly parallel trajectories—one of aggressive fiscal expansion and the other of precise regulatory reconstruction—are not coincidental. Together, they constitute a carefully designed 'Washington conspiracy': by creating a macroeconomic tsunami while building a regulatory moat tailored for the U.S., they aim to establish an unassailable hegemonic position in the global digital asset race. This is not just about tax cuts or regulation; it is a gamble concerning the dominance of the future financial system.
The economic engine and debt black hole of the One Big Beautiful Bill
Structurally, the OBBB Act is a meticulously designed duet. On one hand, it introduces an unprecedented scale of tax cuts. Critics have dubbed the act an extreme 'robbing the poor to pay the rich': it permanently locks the corporate tax rate at 21% and provides high-income individuals with nearly $6,000 in annual tax savings. On the other hand, the price for all this is a brutal reduction in social welfare programs. Food stamps for about 600,000 households will shrink by $100 per month, while the Medicaid program will be directly cut by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
The core of the controversy in this game lies in its real fiscal costs. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) utilizes a 'dynamic scoring' model, insisting that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, and the resulting tax revenue will cover the costs. However, this optimistic prediction starkly contrasts with the conclusions of nearly all nonpartisan analysis institutions.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the act will add $3.3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade. Think tanks such as the center-left Brookings Institution and the libertarian Cato Institute have reached similar conclusions, noting that its boosting effect on GDP is negligible and cannot offset its enormous debt costs. Economists at Goldman Sachs have bluntly stated that any slight growth impetus from the act will be completely offset by the economic drag from the tariffs implemented by the government concurrently.
The academic debate over scoring models actually conceals a more fundamental truth that cannot be ignored: regardless of how it is calculated, the U.S. has clearly chosen a path of stimulating the economy through large-scale, unfunded fiscal expansion. This is not an ordinary policy adjustment but a paradigm shift in fiscal posture. The underlying economic reality is that a debt-driven super-stimulus cycle has already begun.
The Inevitable Rise
Such large-scale fiscal expansion will inevitably reverberate in the monetary sphere. A multi-trillion-dollar hole in new national debt means a need for an equivalent scale of monetary expansion to finance it. This will inevitably lead to the devaluation of fiat currency, creating a strong and structural long-term benefit for scarce, non-sovereign hard assets like Bitcoin.
This logical chain has been eloquently articulated by two thought leaders in the crypto world—Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, likens currency devaluation to a 'leakage of economic energy.' In his view, Bitcoin is the engineering solution to this problem, representing 'for the first time in human history, you can closely bind economic energy to individuals... without having to live in fear.' Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that government spending and fiat currency creation are the fundamental fuels of the crypto bull market. 'Printing money is their only answer,' Hayes asserts, predicting that the massive stimulus from the Trump administration will serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's price surge to a million dollars.
These viewpoints are supported by macro data. There is a significant positive correlation between global broad money supply (M2) and Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that when global M2 rises, excess capital flows into 'risk assets' like cryptocurrencies. The passage of the OBBB Act essentially heralds the arrival of the era of 'Fiscal Dominance.' The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have to serve the government's fiscal needs by purchasing newly issued bonds to finance it—this is essentially the monetization of debt, also described by Hayes as 'Stealth QE.'
Therefore, the OBBB Act is not just a tax bill; it is a clear signal: the U.S. has chosen to manage its heavy debt burden through currency devaluation. This transforms the logic of investing in Bitcoin from a periodic speculative behavior into a long-term, structural necessity.
Game Rules: A Completely New Regulatory Framework
If the macroeconomic tsunami is the first step of the 'conspiracy,' the subsequent regulatory blitzkrieg is the second step. Washington is simultaneously advancing a meticulously designed regulatory combination, aiming not to stifle but to build a solid 'regulatory moat' for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem, thus attracting capital and talent globally and shaping the industry landscape according to American will and advantages.
The first pillar of this regulatory overhaul is the GENIUS Act, designed to create a legal framework tailored for stablecoins. The act establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for 'payment stablecoins,' strictly limits the range of issuers, and requires reserves to be backed 1:1 by cash or high-quality liquid assets such as short-term U.S. Treasury securities. This not only provides an advantage for traditional bank-led tracks but, as Arthur Hayes pointed out, cleverly directs trillions in private savings into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a massive buyer base for the new debt generated by the OBBB Act.
The second pillar is the CLARITY Act, aimed at addressing the ambiguity in regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. The act creates a clear pathway for digital assets to be classified as 'digital commodities' once their networks are sufficiently decentralized, thus placing them under CFTC oversight. This paves the way for the compliance of mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum, significantly reducing the legal risks for institutional entry.
The final pillar of the regulatory framework is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. This act explicitly prohibits the issuance of retail Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) through legislation, declaring to the world that the U.S. is committed to a private, permissionless financial future rather than a 'Chinese-style surveillance tool.' This strategic choice aims to compete with China's digital yuan by supporting an ecosystem led by the private sector, founded on open and free principles, ensuring that the dollar, in its new digital proxy form, continues to maintain its global dominance.
Market Judgment: Capital Flow and Future Trajectory
As Washington's macro and regulatory blueprint unfolds, the market has started to vote with real money. But as many investors fear, all recent policy benefits seem to have been priced in. Following the short-term boost from the OBBB Act on U.S. stocks, the market may face a period of turbulence and adjustment due to immense deficit pressures.
On-chain data and market sentiment analysis
The current market is digesting a series of complex signals. While surface market sentiment indicators show greed (the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 73), in-depth on-chain data reveals a more mature and stable picture. According to Glassnode's analysis, despite the market experiencing severe volatility, its bull market structure remains solid, forming a robust structural support between $93,000 and $100,000.
Despite the price increase leading to profit-taking, data shows that selling pressure is diminishing, and the behavioral patterns of long-term holders (LTH) are shifting back to 'HODL' (holding for the long term). More notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, which is quite unusual in the later stages of a bull market, indicating their strong belief in the future. This divergence between surface sentiment (greed) and underlying data (calm) is a hallmark of a mature, institution-driven market. The market is building a strong support foundation, patiently absorbing selling pressure and awaiting the full implementation of macroeconomic and regulatory policies.
Corporate Balance Sheet 2.0
The 'corporate playbook' pioneered by MicroStrategy, which uses publicly listed companies as tools for gaining exposure to crypto assets, is now approaching its 2.0 version. Under the dual tailwinds of macro and regulatory factors, companies are beginning to expand their focus from Bitcoin to other strategically valuable digital commodities, especially Ethereum.
The stock price of the crypto mining company Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) surged over 130% in a single day, catalyzed by the company's announcement of completing a $250 million private funding round aimed at purchasing Ethereum as its core inventory reserve asset. Notably bullish on crypto, Fundstrat founder Tom Lee took the position of the new chairman of the company, injecting significant market credibility into this strategy. Coincidentally, Canadian fintech company Mogo Inc. (MOGO) also announced a $50 million Bitcoin inventory reserve authorization and designated Bitcoin as the 'company's hurdle rate of return' for all capital allocation decisions.
This is a perfect positive feedback loop. The CLARITY Act de-risked Ethereum, making BMNR's ETH inventory reserve strategy possible. BMNR's actions, in turn, became a significant proof of concept, demonstrating the importance of the CLARITY Act. We are witnessing the birth of a new asset class for corporate balance sheets. The market is beginning to distinguish between 'Bitcoin as a store of value' and 'Ethereum as a decentralized computing platform/settlement layer.' Washington's regulatory strategy provides a framework for the coexistence and thriving of both in the portfolios of compliant entities.
Conclusion: Riding the New Paradigm of Crypto in the U.S.
In summary, inflationary fiscal blitzkrieg, a regulatory framework aimed at legitimizing and guiding the industry, and a strategic rejection of state-controlled currency are not coincidences. This is a well-thought-out 'Washington conspiracy' aimed at consolidating America's leadership position in the next generation of financial and technological revolution.
The U.S. is choosing to manage its debt through inflation, creating a permanent structural demand for hard assets. Meanwhile, it is constructing a regulatory moat that brings digital assets into its dominated orbit. It provides a clear pathway to legalization for the broader Web3 ecosystem, ensuring that the next generation of the internet is built on U.S. soil. More importantly, it does all of this while clearly choosing the path of economic freedom and personal privacy over state surveillance, giving it a powerful advantage over authoritarian rivals in the global ideological competition.
The market has grasped this signal and responded with mature consolidation and strategic corporate adoption beyond Bitcoin. For global investors, developers, and builders, the message from Washington is unmistakable: the game has begun, and the U.S. is determined to win. A globally attractive macro and regulatory environment tailored for digital assets is forming in the U.S. This gamble, though fraught with risk, has a clear goal: to attract global capital, nurture domestic innovation, and ensure that the dollar continues as the undisputed global reserve currency through its new private, decentralized digital proxy, ruling the 21st century.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their particular circumstances and comply with relevant laws and regulations in their country or region.
