In Washington, seemingly unrelated events often intertwine at a deeper level, sketching a grand strategic picture. At the beginning of July, when public attention focused on the U.S. House of Representatives' 'Independence Day gift' to President Trump — the massive fiscal bill dubbed the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ (OBBB) — another quieter but equally profound revolution was quietly brewing on Capitol Hill: a series of legislative proposals targeting digital assets was being put on the agenda at an unprecedented speed.
These two seemingly parallel trajectories — one of aggressive fiscal expansion and the other of precise regulatory reshaping — are not coincidental. Together, they constitute a carefully designed 'Washington conspiracy': by creating a massive wave of macroeconomic upheaval while constructing a regulatory moat tailored for the U.S., thereby establishing its unassailable hegemonic position in the global digital asset race. This is not just about tax cuts or regulations; it is a gamble concerning the dominance of the future financial system.
The economic engine and debt black hole of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill.'
Structurally, the OBBB Act is a carefully designed duet. On one hand, it introduces unprecedented tax cuts. Critics of the act call it an extreme 'robbing the poor to pay the rich': it permanently locks the corporate tax rate at 21% and provides nearly $6,000 in annual tax savings for high-income earners. On the other hand, the costs are borne by brutal cuts to social welfare programs. Food stamps for about 600,000 families will shrink by $100 per month, and the Medicaid program will be directly cut by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
The core of the controversy surrounding this game lies in its real fiscal costs. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) employs a 'dynamic scoring' model, insisting that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, generating enough revenue to offset the costs. However, this optimistic forecast starkly contrasts with the conclusions of nearly all nonpartisan analysis organizations.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that this bill will add a net $3.3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade. Think tanks such as the center-left Brookings Institution and the libertarian Cato Institute have reached similar conclusions, asserting that its impact on GDP will be negligible and will not offset its massive debt costs. Goldman Sachs economists have bluntly stated that any slight growth impetus resulting from the bill will be completely offset by the economic drag created by government-imposed tariff policies.
The academic debate over scoring models actually conceals a more fundamental, undeniable truth: no matter how calculated, the United States has clearly chosen a path of stimulating the economy through massive, unbacked fiscal expansion. This is not an ordinary policy adjustment but a paradigm shift in fiscal posture. The underlying economic reality is that a debt-driven super-stimulus cycle has already begun.
Inevitable Rise.
Such a scale of fiscal expansion will inevitably reverberate in the monetary realm. A multi-trillion-dollar new debt hole means that an equal scale of monetary expansion is needed to finance it. This will inevitably lead to the devaluation of fiat currency, creating a powerful and structural long-term benefit for scarce, non-sovereign hard assets like Bitcoin.
This logical chain has been articulated vividly by two thought leaders in the crypto world — Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, likens currency devaluation to a 'leakage of economic energy.' In his view, Bitcoin is the engineering solution to this problem, marking 'the first time in human history that you can closely tie economic energy to individuals... without having to live in fear.' Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that government spending and fiat currency creation are the fundamental fuels of the crypto bull market. 'Printing money is their only answer,' Hayes asserts, predicting that the Trump administration's massive stimulus will catalyze Bitcoin prices to soar to $1 million.
These views are supported by macro data. There is a significant positive correlation between the global broad money supply (M2) and Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that when global M2 rises, excess capital flows into 'risk assets' like cryptocurrencies. The passage of the OBBB Act effectively heralds the arrival of the era of 'Fiscal Dominance.' The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have to serve the government's fiscal needs by purchasing newly issued bonds to finance it — this is essentially debt monetization, also described by Hayes as 'Stealth QE.'
Thus, the OBBB Act is not just a tax bill; it is a clear signal: the United States has chosen to manage its heavy debt burden through currency devaluation. This transforms the logic of investing in Bitcoin from a periodic speculative activity into a long-term, structural necessity.
Game Rules: A Brand New Regulatory Framework.
If the massive waves of macroeconomics are the first step of the 'conspiracy,' then the subsequent regulatory blitzkrieg is the second step. Washington is synchronously advancing a carefully designed regulatory combination aimed not at stifling but at constructing a solid 'regulatory moat' for the American digital asset ecosystem, thereby attracting capital and talent globally, shaping the industry landscape according to U.S. intentions and advantages.
The first pillar of this regulatory reshaping is the GENIUS Act, aimed at creating a legal framework tailored for stablecoins. The act establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for 'payment stablecoins,' strictly defining the scope of issuers and requiring reserves to be backed by cash or high-quality liquid assets like short-term U.S. Treasury bonds on a 1:1 basis. This not only provides an advantage for traditional bank-dominated tracks but, as Arthur Hayes pointed out, cleverly directs trillions in private savings into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a massive buyer pool for the new debt generated by the OBBB Act.
The second pillar is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), aimed at resolving the ambiguities of regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. The act creates a clear pathway for digital assets to be classified as 'digital commodities' once their networks are sufficiently decentralized, thus placing them under CFTC regulation. This paves the way for mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum to achieve compliance, significantly reducing the legal risks for institutional entry.
The final pillar of the regulatory framework is the Anti-CBDC Monitoring State Act. This act explicitly prohibits the issuance of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), declaring to the world that the U.S. is committed to a private, permissionless financial future rather than a 'Chinese-style surveillance tool.' This strategic choice supports a privately-led ecosystem based on open and free principles to compete with China's digital yuan, ensuring that the dollar, in its new digital proxy form, continues to maintain its global dominance.
Market Judgment: Capital Flows and Future Trajectories.
As Washington's macro and regulatory blueprint unfolds, the market has begun to vote with real money. However, as many investors are concerned, it seems that all recent policy positives have already been realized. After the short-term boost to the U.S. stock market from the OBBB Act, the market may face a tumultuous adjustment period due to immense deficit pressures.
On-chain data and market sentiment analysis.
The current market is digesting a series of complex signals. While surface market sentiment indicators indicate greed (the fear and greed index has risen to 73), deeper on-chain data reveals a more mature and stable picture. According to Glassnode's analysis, despite experiencing extreme volatility, the market's bull structure remains solid, forming a robust structural support between $93,000 and $100,000.
Despite profits taking, data shows that selling pressure is weakening, and the behavior pattern of long-term holders (LTH) is shifting back to 'HODL' (holding long-term). More notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, which is highly unusual in the later stages of a bull market, indicating their strong confidence in the future. This surface sentiment (greed) diverging from underlying data (calm) is precisely a hallmark of a mature, institutionally driven market. The market is building a strong support foundation, patiently absorbing selling pressure, and waiting for the full rollout of macro and regulatory policies.
Corporate balance sheets 2.0.
The 'corporate playbook' pioneered by MicroStrategy, using publicly listed companies as vehicles for gaining exposure to crypto assets, is entering its 2.0 version. Under the double tailwind of macro and regulatory conditions, corporations are beginning to expand their focus from Bitcoin to other strategically valuable digital commodities, especially Ethereum.
The stock price of crypto mining company Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) surged over 130% in one day, catalyzed by the company's announcement of completing a $250 million private placement aimed specifically at purchasing Ethereum as its core inventory reserve asset. Notable crypto bull, Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat, has taken on the role of the company's new chairman, injecting significant market credibility into this strategy. Coincidentally, Canadian fintech company Mogo Inc. (MOGO) also announced a $50 million Bitcoin inventory reserve authorization, making Bitcoin the 'company's hurdle rate' for all capital allocation decisions.
This is a perfect positive feedback loop. The CLARITY Act de-risking Ethereum makes BMNR's ETH inventory reserve strategy possible. BMNR's actions, in turn, serve as a huge proof of concept, demonstrating the importance of the CLARITY Act. We are witnessing the birth of a new category of corporate balance sheet assets. The market is beginning to distinguish between ‘Bitcoin as a store of value’ and ‘Ethereum as a decentralized computing platform/settlement layer.’ Washington's regulatory conspiracy provides a framework for both to coexist and thrive in compliant entities' portfolios.
Conclusion: Galloping into the new paradigm of American crypto.
In summary, the inflationary fiscal blitzkrieg, a regulatory framework aimed at legitimizing and guiding the industry, and a strategic veto against national control of money are not coincidences. This is a well-thought-out 'Washington conspiracy' aimed at consolidating America's leadership position in the next generation of financial and technological revolutions.
The U.S. is choosing to manage its debt through inflation, creating a permanent structural demand for hard assets. At the same time, it is building a regulatory moat to bring digital assets into its dominion. It provides a clear path to legalization for the broader Web3 ecosystem, ensuring that the next generation of the internet is built on U.S. soil. More importantly, it is doing all of this while explicitly choosing the path of economic freedom and personal privacy over state surveillance, giving it a significant advantage over authoritarian competitors in the global ideological battle.
The market has understood this signal and responded with mature consolidation and strategic corporate adoption beyond Bitcoin. For global investors, developers, and builders, the message from Washington could not be clearer: the game has begun, and America is determined to win. A globally attractive macro and regulatory environment tailored for digital assets is taking shape in the U.S. This gamble, though fraught with risks, has a clear goal — to attract global capital, foster domestic innovation, and ensure that the dollar continues to serve as the undisputed global reserve currency through its new, private, decentralized digital proxy in the 21st century.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances and comply with relevant laws and regulations in their country and region.
