In Washington, seemingly unrelated events often intertwine at a deeper level, outlining a grand strategic picture. At the beginning of July, when public attention was focused on the 'Independence Day Package' offered by the U.S. House of Representatives to President Trump—the massive fiscal bill dubbed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' (OBBB)—another quieter but equally profound revolution was quietly brewing on Capitol Hill—a series of legislative proposals targeting digital assets were being put on the agenda at an unprecedented speed.
These two seemingly parallel trajectories—one of radical fiscal expansion and the other of precise regulatory reshaping—are not coincidental. Together, they form a carefully designed 'Washington conspiracy': by creating a massive wave in the macroeconomy while simultaneously building a regulatory moat tailored for the U.S., it aims to establish its unshakeable hegemonic position in the global digital asset race. This is not just about tax cuts or regulation; it is a gamble concerning the future dominance of the financial system.
The economic engine and debt black hole of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'
Structurally, the OBBB Act is a carefully designed duet. On one hand, it introduces unprecedented tax cuts. Critics have dubbed this act an extreme 'robbing the poor to pay the rich': it permanently locks corporate tax rates at 21% and provides nearly $6,000 in annual tax savings for high-income individuals. On the other hand, those footing the bill will face harsh cuts to social welfare programs. About 600,000 households will see their food stamp benefits shrink by $100 each month, while the Medicaid program will be directly cut by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
The crux of the controversy in this game lies in its true fiscal costs. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) employs a 'dynamic scoring' model, insisting that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth and that the revenue generated will be sufficient to offset costs. However, this optimistic forecast starkly contrasts with the conclusions of nearly all nonpartisan analytical institutions.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that this bill will net an increase of $3.3 trillion in federal debt over the next decade. Think tanks such as the center-left Brookings Institution and the liberal-leaning Cato Institute have reached similar conclusions, believing that its impact on GDP is minimal and completely insufficient to offset its enormous debt costs. Economists at Goldman Sachs have bluntly stated that any slight growth impetus brought by the bill will be fully offset by the economic drag generated by the tariff policies the government will implement concurrently.
The academic debate over scoring models actually obscures a more fundamental and undeniable truth: regardless of how it is calculated, the U.S. has clearly chosen a path of stimulating the economy through massive, unfunded fiscal expansion. This is not just an ordinary policy adjustment; it represents a paradigm shift in fiscal posture. The underlying economic reality is that a debt-driven super-stimulus cycle has commenced.
Inevitable Rise
Such a scale of fiscal expansion will inevitably resonate in the monetary realm. A new hole of several trillion dollars in national debt means that an equal scale of monetary expansion is needed to finance it. This will inevitably lead to the depreciation of fiat currency, creating a strong and structural long-term benefit for scarce, non-sovereign hard assets like Bitcoin.
This logical chain has been elaborated by two thought leaders in the crypto world—Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, compares currency depreciation to a 'leakage of economic energy.' In his view, Bitcoin is the engineering solution to this problem, representing 'for the first time in human history, you can bind economic energy closely to individuals... without having to live in fear.' On the other hand, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that government spending and fiat currency creation are the fundamental fuels of the crypto bull market. 'Printing money is their only answer,' Hayes asserts, predicting that the massive stimulus from the Trump administration will become a catalyst driving Bitcoin's price to hit one million dollars.
These views are supported by macro data. There is a significant positive correlation between the global broad money supply (M2) and Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that when global M2 increases, excess capital flows into 'risk assets' such as cryptocurrencies. The passage of the OBBB Act essentially heralds the arrival of the era of 'Fiscal Dominance.' The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have to serve the fiscal needs of the government by buying newly issued bonds to finance them—this is essentially the monetization of debt, also described by Hayes as 'Stealth QE.'
Therefore, the OBBB Act is not just a tax bill; it is a clear signal: the U.S. has chosen to manage its heavy debt burden through currency depreciation. This transforms the logic of investing in Bitcoin from a cyclical speculative behavior into a long-term, structural necessity.
Rules of the Game: A completely new regulatory framework
If the massive wave in the macroeconomy is the first step of the 'conspiracy,' then the subsequent regulatory blitzkrieg is the second step. Washington is simultaneously advancing a carefully designed regulatory combo aimed not to stifle but to build a solid 'regulatory moat' for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem, thereby attracting capital and talent globally and shaping the industry landscape according to U.S. interests and advantages.
The first pillar of this regulatory reshaping is the (GENIUS Act), which aims to create a legal framework tailored for stablecoins. This act establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for 'payment stablecoins,' strictly limiting the scope of issuers and requiring reserves to be backed by cash or high-quality liquid assets like short-term U.S. Treasury bonds at a 1:1 ratio. This not only provides an advantage for traditional bank-dominated tracks but, as Arthur Hayes pointed out, cleverly guides trillions of private savings into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a massive buyer pool for the new debt created by the OBBB Act.
The second pillar is the (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (CLARITY Act), aimed at addressing the ambiguity of regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. The act creates a clear pathway for digital assets to be classified as 'digital commodities' once their networks are sufficiently decentralized, thereby placing them under CFTC regulation. This paves the way for the compliance of mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum, significantly reducing the legal risks for institutional entry.
The final pillar of the regulatory framework is the (Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act). This act explicitly prohibits the issuance of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) through legislation, proclaiming to the world that the U.S. is committed to a private, permissionless financial future rather than a 'Chinese-style surveillance tool.' This strategic choice aims to compete with China's digital yuan by supporting a private sector-led ecosystem built on open and free principles, thereby ensuring that the dollar, in its new digital proxy form, continues to maintain its global dominance.
The market's judgment: capital flows and future trajectories
As Washington's macro and regulatory blueprint unfolds, the market has begun to vote with real money. But as many investors are concerned, all recent policy benefits seem to have been realized. After the short-term boost effect of the OBBB Act on the U.S. stock market, the market may face a period of volatile adjustment due to enormous deficit pressures.
On-chain data and market sentiment analysis
The current market is digesting a series of complex signals. While surface market sentiment indicators show greed (the fear and greed index has risen to 73), deeper on-chain data reveals a more mature and solid picture. According to Glassnode's analysis, despite the market experiencing wild fluctuations, its bull market structure remains solid, forming strong structural support between $93,000 and $100,000.
Despite the price rise leading to profit-taking, data shows that selling pressure is easing, and the behavior patterns of long-term holders (LTH) are shifting back to 'HODL' (holding for the long term). More notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached a historical high, which is quite unusual in the late stages of a bull market, indicating a strong belief in the future. This divergence between surface sentiment (greed) and underlying data (calmness) is precisely a sign of a maturing, institution-driven market. The market is building a strong support base, patiently absorbing selling pressure and waiting for the comprehensive implementation of macro and regulatory policies.
Corporate Balance Sheet 2.0
The 'corporate playbook' pioneered by MicroStrategy, which uses publicly traded companies as a tool to gain exposure to crypto assets, is entering version 2.0. With favorable macroeconomic and regulatory conditions, companies are beginning to expand their focus from Bitcoin to other strategically valuable digital commodities, especially Ethereum.
The stock price of crypto mining company Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) soared more than 130% in one day, catalyzed by the company's announcement of completing a $250 million private placement to purchase Ethereum as its core inventory reserve asset. Notable crypto bull and Fundstrat founder Tom Lee was appointed as the company's new chairman, greatly injecting market credibility into this strategy. Coincidentally, Canadian fintech company Mogo Inc. (MOGO) also announced a $50 million Bitcoin inventory reserve authorization and designated Bitcoin as the 'hurdle return rate' for all capital allocation decisions.
This is a perfect positive feedback loop. The CLARITY Act de-risked Ethereum, making BMNR's ETH inventory reserve strategy possible. The actions of BMNR, in turn, become a huge proof of concept, demonstrating the significance of the CLARITY Act. We are witnessing the birth of a new asset class for corporate balance sheets. The market is beginning to differentiate between 'Bitcoin as a store of value' and 'Ethereum as a decentralized computing platform/settlement layer.' Washington's regulatory conspiracy provides a framework for both to coexist and thrive in compliant entities' portfolios.
Conclusion: Galloping into the New Paradigm of U.S. Crypto
In summary, the inflationary fiscal blitzkrieg, a regulatory framework aimed at legitimizing and guiding the industry, and a strategic rejection of state-controlled currency are not coincidental. This is a well-thought-out 'Washington conspiracy' aimed at consolidating America's leadership position in the next generation of financial and technological revolutions.
The U.S. is choosing to manage its debt through inflation, creating a permanent structural demand for hard assets. Meanwhile, it is building a regulatory moat to bring digital assets into its dominated orbit. It provides a clear path to legalization for the broader Web3 ecosystem, ensuring that the next generation of the internet is built on U.S. soil. More importantly, while doing all this, it has clearly chosen the path of economic freedom and individual privacy, rather than state surveillance, providing it with a strong advantage over authoritarian rivals in the global ideological competition.
The market has already grasped this signal and responded with mature consolidation and strategic corporate adoption that surpasses Bitcoin. For global investors, developers, and builders, the message from Washington is crystal clear: the game has begun, and the U.S. is determined to win. A globally attractive macro and regulatory environment tailored for digital assets is forming in the U.S. This gamble, though filled with risks, has a clear goal—attract global capital, nurture domestic innovation, and ensure that the dollar, through its new, private, decentralized digital proxy, continues to serve as the undisputed global reserve currency in the 21st century.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances, and comply with the relevant laws and regulations of their country and region.
